SAN JUAN (Puerto Rico) - When the 2024 FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament in San Juan, Puerto Rico, was drawn, the expectation was that Lithuania and Italy would cross paths at some point.
What probably wasn't in the cards was for them to meet on Saturday, with one of them advancing and the other one about to be eliminated before reaching Sunday's Final.
Puerto Rico's win Thursday night altered the most likely of brackets, setting up a great game between these two European powerhouses.
Key matchup
Both teams boast plenty of depth of experience, but the outcome of the game will likely come down to the performance of their respective teams' stars: Domantas Sabonis and Danilo Gallinari.
The Sacramento Kings' Lithuanian power forward averaged a double-double (17.0 points and 10.0 rebounds) in his country's pair of wins, while Gallinari led Italy in scoring in both games, scoring 14 points each against Bahrain and Puerto Rico.
The Italian veteran suffered an injury in the final minutes of the game against Puerto Rico and his presence for Saturday could now be in doubt.
X-factors
Point guard play looms large in this matchup. Head coach Kazys Maksvytis went with Lukas Lekavicius in the second half against Côte d'Ivoire and that sparked the team's comeback. He's averaging 11.5 points and 3.5 assists coming off the bench behind Rokas Jokubaitis (7.0 points and 4.5 assists).
Marco Spissu (7.5 points, 6.5 assists and 2.0 steals) and Nico Mannion (10.0 points, 4.5 dimes and 1.5 steals) have also been solid for Italy.
Stats don't lie
Three-point and free throw shooting could very well tip the scales in a game involved the No. 10 and No. 13 teams in the FIBA World Rankings Presented by Nike.
While Lithuania ranks first at the charity stripe (82.5 percent), Italy is just shooting 75.5. Likewise, the Italians' 33.3 percent from long distance is the lowest mark of the remaining teams.
Head coach Gianmarco Pozzecco said on Thursday that he was happy with the quality of his team's shots and that they were just missing open ones. A few more makes could be the difference between keeping the Olympic dream alive or going home.
Past matchups
Lithuania has a 12-4 head-to-head lead over Italy in FIBA competitions.
The last four games between these teams have all gone in favor of the yellow, green and red. Those came at the 2015, 2013 and 2007 EuroBasket tournaments and the 2006 FIBA Basketball World Cup.
However, Italy famously defeated Lithuania in the Semi-Finals of the Olympic Basketball Tournament in Athens back in 2004.
They said
"It's not our best basketball. I feel like we haven't played it yet, but I'm just proud of the group of guys, coaches, everyone. In the fourth quarter, we were down nine and we managed to stick together and not panic and get up to win. In these tournaments, you just have to win and move on. We hope to watch film, practice and get better for (Saturday) night." - Kazys Maksvytis, Lithuania head coach
"We came out kind of soft and they pushed us around. They were physical and the refs are letting us be physical here, so we gotta take that to our advantage starting on the Semi-Final, you know, because it's a win or go home." - Domantas Sabonis, Lithuania power forward
"We are here to compete. We were competitive in the first game. We knew (today) wasn’t going to be easy for us. We were 57-57 at the end of the third quarter. We want to compete also in 2 days against Lithuania. My guys, I have nothing (bad) to tell them. They had the right behavior and they were amazing. We will fight. This is our life. Every couple of days you have another step, and everybody judges you. In 2 days, we have a game, the Semi-Final. We will be at our best to reach the Final and to play again against (Puerto Rico)." - Gianmarco Pozzecco, Italy head coach
"This will be my first time playing against (Lithuania), but of course they are a great team. We watched yesterday’s game and we're going to see the video tomorrow and we're going to try to do our best and try to win the game tomorrow." - Marco Spissu, Italy point guard
FIBA