Preview: Can Germany make a Cinderella run against the tournament’s giants?

BELEM (Brazil) – At first glance, a 4-nation group where 3 of them will qualify to the Olympic Games in France this summer doesn’t seem to be the best recipe for drama. However, once you look at who those teams are, things get very interesting, very fast.

This Olympic Qualifying Tournament has all the best ingredients: a host nation with a young, bright star seeking to return her country to glory (Brazil); a classic Cinderella story (Germany); a seasoned favorite dealing with injuries and generational change (Australia); and a true, unpredictable wild card (Serbia).

Fasten your seat belts!

 

 

Additionally, you can explore detailed team profiles for Brazil, Germany, Australia and Serbia.

The Favorite: Australia

The third best team in the world, at least according to the FIBA World Ranking Women, presented by Nike, has to be considered a near lock to earn one of the 3 tickets to France and extend their Olympic streak to 8 appearances in a row.

Despite some big injury absences (Alice Kunek, Stephanie Talbot, Kristy Wallace and Darcee Garbin), the Opals are still bringing plenty of firepower to the event in South America.

Key among them will be the return of Cayla George, one of 8 players who won bronze at the FIBA Women’s World Cup 2022. The squad still boasts a great deal of balance, with young guns Jade Melbourne, Isobel Borlase and Stephanie Reid joining veterans like Alanna Smith, Lauren Jackson and Tess Magden.

Bec Allen will suit up for the Opals in Brazil

“Playing for the Opals is the pinnacle for me,” Melbourne said. “I can’t wait to get on the plane, get to Brazil and do whatever I can to help the team qualify for Paris.”

The Underdog: Germany

A changing of the winds. An alignment of the planets. Call it what you may, but something’s clicked recently for German women’s basketball and the squad has a golden opportunity to make history – that is, to play in the Olympics for the first time.

The return of Satou Sabally after missing the FIBA Women’s EuroBasket 2023 is one of many reasons for the Europeans to dream big in Belem, even within a tournament that features 3 heavy favorites for the 3 berths to France.

A 4-3 record at last year’s EuroBasket and a Quarterfinals appearance has them feeling confident and a good showing would give them strong momentum heading into the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup, a tournament they’ll be hosting for the second time after the 1998 edition.

The Pivotal Game: Germany v Serbia

With Australia and Brazil as the on-paper favorites, the matchup between Germany and Serbia could very well determine the third and final berth to the Olympics.

These teams faced each other in late June of 2023, with the Serbians prevailing, 78-62, on the last day of Women’s EuroBasket in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

Serbia and Germany last met at the FIBA EuroBasket Women's 2023

Serbia had four players scoring in double digits, led by Yvonne Anderson’s 16, in a game where Germany committed twice as many turnovers (22) as their opponent.

Germany won’t be able to count on injured forward Emily Bessoir, but sisters Satou and Nyara Sabally will be back on Lisa Thomaidi’s squad.

The Big Question: Can Kamilla Soares take Brazil to new heights?

The talent of Brazil’s current generation of players is undeniable, led by 2016 Olympian Erika de Souza and fellow veterans Damiris Dantas, Isabel Macedo and Tainá Paixao.

However, the missing piece during the last few cycles was that bona fide star that could make everything else work in harmony.

Enter 6’8 phenom Kamilla Soares, who’s been an absolute rocket ship since making her national team debut in 2021. She’s now accumulated one bronze medal and a pair of golds, reaching rarified air last year by winning MVP honors after defeating the United States at the FIBA AmeriCup Women 2023 Final.

 

Soares was masterful (20 points, 11 rebounds) in that game and has continued to shine since, with current averages of 13.7 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.8 blocks this season at the University of South Carolina. 

Her next challenge is to prove herself at the world stage. Expect her to deliver big, punch her ticket to France and add another squad to the list of medal contenders.

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