BEIRUT (Lebanon) - It's been a while. Nine months to be exact, but we're back and ready for some action in the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Qualifiers.
There's been quite some movement of the past three quarters of the year, so it's a good time to check in and see how each team is stacked against one another heading into the second window.
Some teams can already clinch Asia Cup qualification in this window, so the stakes are a bit different than window 1 - as it will be even more intense in the February window next year.
Here we go with Volume 3 of the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Qualifiers Smart Power Rankings.
The teams were ranked taking into consideration forms from the previous window, the competition system, opponent strength, and other recent competitions.
There's still some movement throughout the Power Rankings, as always. Some teams have built up momentum with outstanding play in tune-up games, while some are expecting additional firepower from new recruits. All of that will be reflected in this update.
If you feel your team is overlooked or underestimated, don't forget to leave a comment across our social media platforms to show your support… and check again for the update in the next volume!
And here. We. Go.
#1 Australia ⏸
Previous Ranking: 1 Movement: -
Nick Kay is back because Nick Kay will always be back as a Boomer even after an Olympic games run and that's why Australia will always be solid as a rock. Breakout center Josh Bannan is also back after putting up 14.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. So is Dejan Vasiljevic. There's not much to suggest that the Boomers will take a step back, which is why they're staying put at the top.
Two away games might seem difficult, but Australia should still have the upper hand.
Boom is back.
#2 Philippines ⬆️
Previous Ranking: 3 Movement: +1
The Philippines left the February window on a high as the best offensive team of the Continental Cup Qualifiers and then gained even more with their run in the OQT. They're keeping that momentum going as the 12 players who played in Window 1 are all listed in the pool for Window 2 with only three players added as potential "new" faces.
Even then, those new players are more than familiar with the program whether it is Ange Kouame, AJ Edu, or Mason Amos. There's a lot of positivity surrounding the direction of how Gilas are progressing with their program so sticking to the formula is reasonable - and it only makes sense to put them up a step here.
#3 Japan ⬇️
Previous Ranking: 2 Movement: -1
AKATSUKI JAPAN are coming off a February window where they beat China for the first time in what seems like forever, an inspiring performance in the Paris Olympics, and already selling out their home game of the window against Mongolia, so seeing them slip down a spot might seem unfair.
But it might be wise to expect some cooldown from one of the hottest teams in Asia. Going from almost having Yuta Watanabe make his Asia Cup Qualifiers debut to not having him anymore might not make this team so much different than the window 1 team, but it does feel like a bit of a blow to the momentum they were building.
They're still going to be good, maybe not great. And sometimes it's okay to be just good. And they're still going to be playing in front of a sold-out crowd, so they'll be fine.
#4 Lebanon ⏸
Previous Ranking: 4 Movement: -
We're in a bit of a tight spot here. Lebanon went through coaching changes since the last window and it's not an insignificant one.
Miodrag Perisic was tapped by Lebanon in place of Jadd El Hajj.
Lebanon are lining up Omari Spellman for the first time in the Qualifiers, while the key core of Wael Arakji, Sergio El Darwich and others are still in the mix.
Lebanon gets the edge here as they should have a lighter slate compared to the team below, though a lot of things can change in the next few days.
#5 New Zealand ⏸
Previous Ranking: 5 Movement: -
New Zealand also went through coaching changes since the last window and it's not an insignificant one for them either.
Judd Flavell stepped in as head coach for the Tall Blacks following the footsteps of FIBA Hall of Famer Pero Cameron.
The Tall Blacks are parading a fun roster of talents too, whether it's New Zealand bringing Corey Webster back as captain and potentially giving 17-year-old Oscar Goodman his Tall Blacks debut.
The Tall Blacks' schedule looks a bit tougher with playing the Philippines in Manila in their first game, which is why Lebanon are a nudge above them now.
But don't be surprised if you check back at the end of the window and see New Zealand and Lebanon headed in different directions even if they both sweep.
It wouldn't be the first time we're wrong about putting New Zealand too low anyways.
#6 Jordan ⬆️
Previous Ranking: 7 Movement: +1
Jordan aren't doing anything snappy. Coach Wesam Al Sous is still there. We're not expecting any big surprises in the roster for the window - though bringing back Dar Tucker is always going to be exciting.
But they did well in winning a series of tune-up games in the King's Cup hosted at home against Qatar, Syria, and Palestine - the latter of whom they will face again in this window. They'll stay at home for the first game of the window against Iraq and that momentum should carry on against an opponent they have generally had the upper hand against.
It might not be flashy and exciting, but Jordan are progressing along well.
#7 Korea ⬇️
Previous Ranking: 6 Movement: -1
Korea are going to be a fine team. One of the most exciting news of the window in the Asia Cup Qualifiers is "Korean Klay" Lee Hyunjung returning to play for the national team for the first time since 2021. It's also going to be fun seeing Lee JongHyun back in action for the first time in a FIBA competition for the first time since 2017, too. And their first game will be against Indonesia, which means they'll have a good opportunity to build up momentum in a two-game home stand.
It will not be easy to move on from having to replace Ra GunA though, who led the team in EFF, scoring, and rebounds in Window 1. Lee Junghyun and Ha Yungi are out of the final roster as well. And playing against Australia in the backend of the window games doesn't make life any easier, even if it's at home and even though they put up a good fight in February.
It will be a fun window to watch Korea, but it won't be easy to come out perfect.
#8 China ⏸
Previous Ranking: 8 Movement: -
For now, we're reserving our opinions and letting China hold their spot in the Smart Power Rankings. China are still transitioning to give way to the younger generation to make a name for themselves, so there will be growing pains.
The future does look bright, whether it's rising stars like Hu Mingxuan and Fan Zengbo or promising bigs like Yu Jiahao and Yang Hansen. But they'll have to keep on proving that they deserve more hype. It's a relatively easier window compared to facing Japan in Japan in February, but they should also not underestimate a team with as much firepower as Guam and a team like Mongolia playing at home.
#9 Iran ⏸
Previous Ranking: 9 Movement: -
Iran are oozing sleeping giant vibes. Barely beating Qatar in the February window wasn't too inspiring, but a win is a win. They are still expected to have talents like Arsalan Kazemi, so the starpower is there. They are staying put in the standings for now, but it might not take too much to bump them up in the next Smart Power Ranking update.
Especially when they have interesting games against Kazakhstan (at home) and Qatar (in Doha) coming up. Iran might have wiped out Kazakhstan in Asia Cup 2022 (96-60) but it wasn't that long ago when the Steppen Wolves won two straight games against the mighty Team Melli in the World Cup 2023 Qualifiers.
If they show up with two solid outings, it will be tough to keep Iran on the fringe of the Power Rankings.
#10 Saudi Arabia ⬆️
Previous Ranking: 12 Movement: +2
If you go back to Volume 2 of the Power Rankings, here's what was noted down for Saudi Arabia:
"… what was missing with the absence of Khalid Abdel Gabar in the national team for the first time since 2019. Once he comes back to join star big man Mohamed Alsuwailem, Saudi Arabia will be even better."
Well, there's a good chance Abdel Gabar returns to action to remind everyone that he averaged 16.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game in 8 Asia Cup 2022 Qualifiers games.
They're also playing for the first time after being awarded as hosts of Asia Cup 2025, too. The atmosphere will be wild as they host back-to-back games against Palestine and Iraq in this window.
Cracking into the Top 10 feels just right for Saudi Arabia.
#11 Kazakhstan ⏸
Previous Ranking: 11 Movement: -
This spot here is just a bit above the middle of the Power Ranking, which is exactly how we feel about Kazakhstan.
They're undefeated so far and they've been winning in the expected manner that they've won. There isn't an exact area where they are exceeding expectations - unless you count Rustam Murzagaliyev's red-hot three-point shooting (11-23 in window 1).
19-year-old Daniil Severgin could be a breath of excitement to this team, but we'll have to just wait and see.
#12 Chinese Taipei ⬆️⬆️
Previous Ranking: 17 Movement: +5
There's no such thing as a sure thing and we've watched more than enough basketball, especially in Asia, to know that. But if there ever was a sure thing, it would be that Chinese Taipei are going to be better than where they left off in window 1.
… after playing against the Philippines and New Zealand, they just have to right?
Look over the fact that they'll be playing in Christchurch against New Zealand to close out the window for one second and focus on the fact that they'll be at home aiming for their first win against Hong Kong, China. The Asia Cup 2022 duo of Benson Lin and Ray Chen are there. Al Bachir is back for the first time after debuting in the previous Asia Cup Qualifiers and playing in the Japanese B.League. And the highly anticipated debut of Ma Chien-Hao awaits!
There's a lot of optimism in the air, at least in this window, for Chinese Taipei. So much so that bumping them up 5 spots even feels like holding back a bit.
#13 Bahrain ⬆️
Previous Ranking: 14 Movement: +1
There's a new coach in town and he's pretty good. He took one team to the Asia Cup Final and that should be a nice addition for a team that already has a star scorer like Mustafa Rashed, right?
Jad El Hajj's first test against Syria is a tricky one, though.
#14 Thailand ⬆️
Previous Ranking: 15 Movement: +1
If you told us that a team who won't have their EFF leader and second-leading scorer from window 1 and a player who averaged 27.0 points per game through the Pre-Qualifiers would be going up one spot in the Power Rankings, we'd probably be shocked too.
Yes, Thailand are without Moses Morgan (18.5 points, 35.7 3P% in window 1) and Tyler Lamb (27.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists per game). But they are ready to debut Martin Breunig, the Thai-German who has been having a fantastic season in the German Basketball Bundesliga. They're still underdogs going up against Australia at home in their first game, but they will benefit from having a 2.03M (6'8") big body in the paint - especially when they travel to Indonesia for an important game.
#15 Guam ⬇️
Previous Ranking: 13 Movement: -2
In every Power Ranking, there's bound to be an "It's not you, it's me" move and this is probably it. Sorry, Guam.
Guam has done nothing wrong. They're expecting to have a very solid roster for Window 2, even without Tai Wesley (12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game in Window 1). Playing against China and Japan in this window will be tough, too. But that's just the way it is.
#16 Qatar ⬆️⬆️
Previous Ranking: 20 Movement: +4
What is this sorcery? Qatar - a team that went winless - jumped up four spots in the Power Ranking? Explain yourself.
For starters, they did okay in a couple of tune-up games in Jordan, beating the like of Syria and Palestine. That might not exactly scream "four Power Ranking spots bump", but it's a good start.
Then you have the potential of piecing Tyler Harris into the mix with the other key pieces of the core and you start to see where this might be going. You have to remember that even though this team is winless, they did only lose to Iran by two points and to Kazakhstan by five points. That doesn't seem like too big of a swing to turn things around with a game against India and a home game against Iran coming up.
#17 Iraq ⬇️
Previous Ranking: 16 Movement: -1
Demario Mayfield is back and, to be honest, we're just keeping tabs on how long he will play until he is finally subbed out of a Qualifier game after playing the full 80 minutes in Window 1.
#18 Palestine ⬆️
Previous Ranking: 19 Movement: +1
Tough, tough window for Palestine against Saudi Arabia and Jordan. It does seem like they are heading in the right direction though, if you consider their play in the King's Cup in Jordan where they beat Syria.
Jamal Mayali (20.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 4.5 steals per game in Window 1) should get better and better with the more appearances and bigger responsibilities he gets with Palestine.
#19 Syria ⬇️⬇️
Previous Ranking: 10 Movement: -9
The sliding has got to stop at some point. We might be a little too harsh on Syria here. Losing to Qatar, Palestine, and Jordan in the King's Cup in Amman honestly isn't that bad and it's not like they changed the entire roster. It doesn't look good either though, and neither does playing against Bahrain in Manama and against Lebanon in the window.
Still, there's bound to be a team that ends up making the Power Rankings look silly in retrospect and this might be it.
#20 India ⬇️
Previous Ranking: 18 Movement: -2
India have promising talents, but they are young. They need experience and they'll be getting it in two home games against Qatar and Kazakhstan.
In the meanwhile, they can wait and climb down a few spots in the Power Rankings for now.
#21 Indonesia ⬆️
Previous Ranking: 22 Movement: +1
Grahita is back. Jawato is back. Breakout player from the Pre-OQT 2024 and BCL Asia 2024 Yudha Saputera is back. Anthony Beane Jr. is ready to make his debut.
Will it be enough to make a difference with the situation they are in though? Playing in Goyang against Korea will be tough and playing against a bigger-sized Thailand where a 13-point disadvantage from the Window 1 clash could be at play might be too big of a hole for them to climb out of, but they should still be a better version of themselves than in February.
#22 Mongolia ⬇️
Previous Ranking: 21 Movement: -1
Mongolia basketball can be fun to watch with the pace they attempt to play and just their identity in general. They were able to visualize that identity into a "Blue Wolf" mascot that just seems to perfectly embody their style of play.
That might not help them so much as they face Japan and China this window though, even with an exciting new talent like Margad Erdenetsetseg.
#23 UAE ⏸
Previous Ranking: 23 Movement: -
UAE "wins" the higher spot for now between them and Hong Kong, China as even though they go up against Lebanon, they did give Bahrain some trouble.
So their consolation prize is that they aren't at the bottom of the Power Ranking. For now.
#24 Hong Kong, China ⏸
Previous Ranking: 24 Movement: -
The harsh reality about every Power Ranking is that there will always have to be a team that is at bottom. Even in the most ideal fantasy land where all teams play their most perfect games, someone will have to be stuck at the bottom.
Hong Kong, China are looking at playing in away games against two teams that are on the rise in Chinese Taipei and the Philippines, which seems a bit more tough compared to UAE's schedule.
The bright side (?) is that there is most definitely no other way but up - for Hong Kong, China at least.
Note:The Power Rankings are entirely subjective and is in no way a true, accurate ranking system. All comments are purely those of the author.
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