EuroBasket 2025 Qualifiers: Expert predictions and dark horse candidates

MUNICH (Germany) - The start of the FIBA EuroBasket 2025 Qualifiers is just around the corner and it feels like the right time to dive into some of the bigger questions before the curtain is lifted later in February.

We have gathered our panel of experts to take some wild – and some less wild – swings on what to expect from the campaign that will culminate with the Final Round in Cyprus, Finland, Poland and Latvia next year.

Sharing their views on what to expect, we have FIBA writers Igor Curkovic and David Hein, the voice of international hoops Jeff Taylor and a special guest appearance from Thanos Tsibos, a journalist from Greece featured on SDNA.gr among other places.

Of the 32 national teams in the Qualifiers, who is most likely to go undefeated?

IC: This one is easy. Fresh off of their unforgettable FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 campaign, Germany are looking like they have the tools to stay on top. Sure, the game in Botevgrad will be dangerous. A lot of great teams have fallen there over the years, but as world champs, they are hot favorites to win every single game against Montenegro, Bulgaria and Sweden.

DH: Let's go with reigning European champions Spain, especially because they will have extra motivation of twice facing Latvia after losing to the Baltic side at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023. Spain always take the Qualifiers extremely seriously and new players coming into the team know they have an opportunity to shine in the Qualifiers and also make the team for a major tournament. Serbia would be my second pick.

JT: Greece. The country has a very deep squad of players, many that have been turning out since the European Qualifiers for the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2017. Just as Greece's players once responded to a legendary player turned coach, Panagiotis Giannakis, I envision the same thing happening under EuroBasket 2005 champion and 2006 World Cup star Vassilis Spanoulis.

TT: That's a tough guess. I will go with France who has enough talent, even without the NBA players. Such a deep roster, so many players that can be called in the squad, they can win their group against Croatia, Cyprus and Bosnia and Herzegovina, undefeated.

If you had to make a bold prediction, who would be your dark horse candidate to qualify for the EuroBasket? Remember, be bold!

IC: The steady rise of Danish basketball is approaching its climax point. The core has been there for years now, Iffe is playing the best basketball of his life and is arguably the most clutch player in Europe this season. Add Shavonte Shield. Add veterans like Darko Jukic and Jonas Zohore. Add a lot of new names to the list and a series of continental appearances for the Bakken Bears or other clubs abroad, Denmark are in a good spot and could upset the odds in 2025.

DH: It's very tempting to pick Denmark but it's hard to imagine Georgia's veteran leaders will let that happen. Iceland, for their part, "only" need to finish ahead of Hungary over two games - given the other results in the group are the same - and the Scandinavian side would be back to the EuroBasket for the third time.

 

JT: The Netherlands lost all five of their games at FIBA EuroBasket 2022 but were very competitive at the FIBA Olympic Pre-Qualifying Tournament in Turkiye under coach Arik Shivek. I like the size and the fight in this team. The Dutch can make it to FIBA EuroBasket 2025 ahead of Great Britain or Czechia.

TT: I will say Denmark is my dark horse. They are in a difficult group with Finland, Serbia and Georgia. Considering Finland is already qualified as a host, there are only two spots. Denmark hasn't been to a Final Round for ages, but who can underestimate a team with a possible guard lineup of Iffe Lundberg and Shavon Shields?

Which player are you most excited about watching in the Qualifiers?

IC: I always enjoy a nice comeback story. Nico Mannion has been up and down, he's had his trials and tribulations and it seems he found a home in Varese, winning the MVP of the month award in the Italian League. That's huge for him, that's the confidence boost he desperately needed at 22 to remind everybody of his talents. People tend to forget this was a guy drafted by the Golden State Warriors. We don't forget, though.

DH: Any chance to watch Dzanan Musa play, you got me. A great leader who is a versatile player, a great scorer and lives for big games. Sticking to guys in Europe, a second top option would be to see Iffe Lundberg do his thing as the main man for Denmark.

JT: I can't wait to see Serbia's Aleksa Avramovic hound opposing guards on defense, deflect passes, beat everyone to loose balls and score on daring drives to the basket. He's one of the first players that comes to mind when thinking about the European Qualifiers since the windows were introduced in 2017.

TT: I will have to admit that I love watching Juan Nunez from Spain. The lefty guard is having another great season this year with Ulm and after his performances during summer's World Cup, he is much more mature. He is evolving to a top-caliber floor general and that's insane if we consider he is 19 years old.

And finally, the big one: who is actually winning it all in in 2025?

IC: France. Do you really need an explanation for this? They have an Olympic gold to tackle at home before the next FIBA EuroBasket, they've got the most exciting youngster in a long time with Victor Wembanyama, and the fact they failed so bad at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 could serve as a reminder to bring their A-game day in, day out. That's a scary reminder for the rest of the world.

DH: Early favorites? Well you still have the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments and Paris Olympics to add more storylines. But hard not to look at Spain, France, Germany and Slovenia as well as Greece with Vassilis Spanoulis at the helm. And if I had to pick one: when it doubt, go with Spain.

JT: As good as Germany have been the past two summers, I think they can be even better by EuroBasket 2025. They will have continuity, self belief and the experience of having reached the podium in 2022 and the world title triumph in 2023. Two other title contenders - France, with Victor Wembanyama, are going to be scary. Ditto Slovenia with Luka Doncic.

TT: Germany all the way. I know it is too early, but the World Cup winners are my favorites to win everything in the next few years. Amazing roster, players that combine many different characteristics, shooting bigs, versatile forwards, off screen shooters, physicality and some great leaders. What else could you ask from a team?

FIBA