PARIS (France) - The first phase of the Women's Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024 is over and it's all eyes on the knockout stage in our last volume of the Power Rankings.
We have taken into account the results, performances and compared them against the second volume of the rankings on the eve of the tournament.
Here's how it's looking heading into crunch time and the Quarter-Finals.
12. Japan (-3)
Since the glorious 2021 calendar year when they made the Final at Tokyo 2020 and then captured a fifth straight FIBA Women's Asia Cup success, it's been a struggle. They didn't make the Quarter Finals of the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2022, relinquished their Asia title to China and have now missed out on the top eight of a global competition again.
This didn't look or feel like Japan basketball. There was mitigation in that they lost Mai Yamamoto after the opening game to injury, but the manner of losses was disappointing. They played slower than we love to see and didn't quite shoot the three well enough as a team, or at last for what they need to be successful. Stars like Saki Hayashi (11 of 40) and Stephanie Mawuli (2 of 11) unfortunately misfired.
Now Japan will maybe push a reset button.
11. Canada (-5)
It was a concerning campaign for Canada who didn't win a game. Their Olympic barren spell continues and they have now lost a staggering 8 of 9 games, so they must pick themselves up and there is work to be done. Lacking in firepower, they only managed 63 points per game. That won't win you many games unless your defense is exceptional - and it wasn't.
They also came top of the turnovers chart with an eye-watering 22 per game, while losing Natalie Achonwa to retirement now leaves a void to fill.
The one big positive is that they have plenty of talented young guns, but it's uncertain if they will be ready to produce by the time the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2026 arrives.
10. Puerto Rico (+1)
It feels a little crazy that Puerto Rico shot the ball so badly (by their own admission) at 33 percent, only averaged 58 points per game and yet they could have emerged with two wins. Suffering a pair of heart-breakers, they never got to make Olympic history with a first victory, but threw plenty of metaphorical punches to give both Serbia and Spain huge scares.
Their two star ballers Arella Guirantes and Mya Hollinshed were a combined 21 of 92 and that was critical as both were stellar in Sydney when Puerto Rico made a splash on their last global outing. A huge positive was rising star Trinity San Antonio who showed great signs.
9. China (-4)
Their entire campaign was defined by that very first game of the whole tournament when they maybe switched off and let a lead slip, resulting in being beaten in overtime by Spain. They suffered a hangover by losing to Serbia by more than 20 in their second game and while they beat Puerto Rico in style, it was too little, too late.
China looked nothing like the team that competed in the Women's World Cup Final at Sydney 2022 and that was in part due to injuries.
The amazing Xu Han was visibly struggling at times and while Yueri Li and Meng Li both did their best to make up for it with eye-catching contributions, China were denied a Quarter-Finals place on point difference. Now they need to find a way to bounce back.
8. Nigeria (+4)
What a story and what a fairytale Olympics it has been for Nigeria who became the first African team to ever make the Quarter-Finals - men or women. Serious credit is due to Rene Wakama and her team who absolutely shredded the Power Rankings slating them in 12th spot before the competition got underway. They made history with a first ever group win against Australia and then that momentous success against Canada.
It has been their defense which has been so impressive. Top of the steals chart, always contesting everything, hustling like their lives depended on it, D'Tigress talked about being warriors after the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 2024 and they delivered. The re-integration of Ezinne Kalu has been a game-changer as she has been amazing, but it doesn't feel much of a reward for their historic work that they now face USA in the last eight.
7. Serbia (+1)
It’s been a real mixed bag for Marina Maljkovic and her team, although that is maybe not totally unexpected and mirrors the roller-coaster ride during preparation. After surviving the first night scare against Puerto Rico, they were excellent against China but then missed a step against Spain. That inconsistency could be what prevents them from making an incredible third straight Semi-Finals and they do face a tough task against a resurgent Australia.
The positives include being able to match some of the Opals’ veteran know-how with the likes of Yvonne Anderson and Tina Krajisnik, while the emergence of forward Masa Jankovic is reason to cheer. It could be tight against the Opals and if Serbia can turn the defensive screw with their ball pressure, they could yet defy this 7th place ranking.
6. Spain (+1)
Digging out games is in their DNA. Just ask Mariona Ortiz who spoke about this after their consecutive one-point wins to open up the competition against China and Puerto Rico.
Still unbeaten after also sweeping past Serbia, things have went to plan in terms of results and their 3-0 record, but we’re not sure how much of a toll it has taken on the stress levels and hearts of their fans. One area they need to improve is three-point shooting as it's only 23.2 percent.
Megan Gustafson has been superb, the return of Maria Conde from injury in the last game felt like a breath of fresh air, while ballers like Ortiz and fellow guard Leonor Rodriguez have made timely contributions when needed. Next up a mouth-watering matchup with Belgium. Can Spain still win close games or have the Cats got their number?
5. Germany (+5)
It’s been a dream debut for Germany so far, winning a historic first ever game at the first attempt with the sweetest of tastes in beating neighbors and reigning European champions Belgium. Then, they doubled their win tally instantly by easing past Japan, despite being without Nyara Sabally who sustained a head injury in their opener. A loss to USA last time out won’t dampen spirits and they could be a good matchup for France in the Quarter-Finals.
Getting Nyara Sabally back would be huge, but the way Satou Sabally is playing, Germany can be confident of a strong showing. Having Alexis Peterson has been a difference-maker as expected. Young Frieda Buhner has been terrific and for all the talk of their size, Germany have been the best three-point shooting team. Kudos to Lisa Thomaidis and her players.
4. Australia (-)
Trying to even make an assessment of the Opals at this tournament feels a near-impossible task. Well off the pace in their shock loss to Nigeria, they have now won two in succession, including that fabulous win against France in the last group game when experience got it done for Sandy Brondello. They have tidied up the turnover plague that impacted them in the first six quarters of the tournament and that has made such a difference.
Playing smarter and with Sami Whitcomb really having shifted up a gear with some all-action performances, they look like the kind of Opals team everyone had expected. With Serbia standing in their way, they will feel their depth of options could help them make the Semi-Finals. Shooting the ball well from downtown, that inside-outside game is looking stronger every game and a medal might still be on the menu.
3. France (-1)
After looking imperious and especially defensively in the first games against Canada and Nigeria, the loss to Australia is a big wake-up call. Home fervor is exciting and the fans have given tremendous backing, but they can’t afford to fall asleep or switch off. The help defense and ball pressure dipped against the Opals, but it should sharpen the focus of France who could yet make the Final.
Offensively, they are maybe not quite there yet and while the depth can hurt teams, they probably need another scoring upgrade in terms of someone ready to make some noise with bigger numbers than just Gabby Williams.
Surely that is Marine Johannes who has been used more sparingly in terms of minutes than some might have expected. When France needed a scorer badly in the Opals game there seemed a reluctance to turn to her services. Will she be given more scope moving forward? After all, Germany will provide a tough test.
2. Belgium (+1)
How do you even begin to describe THAT miracle 27-point win against Japan? It was extraordinary and right now, how can Belgium possibly waste the second chance they have earned from themselves? Losing Julie Allemand was a massive blow heading into this competition and after that bad opening game against Germany, all hope looked to be lost.
Yet here they are, inspired by their now legendary leader Emma Meesseman, but with some excellent contributions in support, including from baller stepping up like Elise Ramette. When Belgium move the ball and make the extra pass, they are hard to live with. Beating Spain and then France or Germany will be tough, but surely the force is with them right now? And what about the support of those Cats’ fans? Simply amazing.
1. USA (-)
Still the team on a one-way street to gold, USA remain the nation setting the standard, but they have not quite been the runaway train that some had expected. Part of that is obviously due to having played the ‘Group of Death’ and yet they still strolled past Japan and Germany. Their ability to make wholesale changes in games with multiple subs and not see the level of quality or intensity drop is the key for them. That depth is still as amazing as ever.
A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart seem to be in a direct shootout for MVP and have led a team that is averaging an eye-popping 92 points per game - a massive 16 more than the next best. The team is also getting closer to almost 30 assists per game which tells a story and they will be tough to stop. Massive favorites against Nigeria, a shock looks unlikely and normally the champs get even more focused and ferocious as a tournament unfolds.
FIBA
*The Power Rankings are entirely subjective and is in no way a true, accurate ranking system. All comments are purely those of the author and expert panel.