PARIS (France) - The wait for the start of the Women's Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024 is almost over and ahead of the curtain being raised on the showpiece event, it's time to reveal our second edition of the Power Rankings.
Taking into account the roster announcements, preparation games, expectations, the draw and comparing to Volume 1, here's how it's looking.
12. Nigeria (=)
Chasing that first win in 20 years, Nigeria are the underdogs by far in Group B, but take them lightly at your peril! They will be waiting for anyone who has a bad night and will jump on that opportunity. They pushed Serbia in a friendly and only lost by double-digits so we need to put respect on their name.
However, they have to roll up against three seriously strong, deep and physical teams who could all make a run towards the podium. France, Australia and Canada are so tough and for that reason alone, there's no change. Sorry D'Tigress fans, but you're stuck in 12th spot!
11. Puerto Rico (=)
It's a similar story for Puerto Rico, but they avoid last place in the rankings because they face a China team out of sorts, a Spanish team missing some key players and a Serbian team that isn't what it once was.
The good news is a win against Canada in prep. The bad news is that their opponents didn't have their full team on the floor. Still, it was some much needed basketball sunshine poking from the clouds. The island would love more heroics and a pushing of the repeat button from that shock run to the Quarter-Finals at the 2022 Women's World Cup. If they shoot the lights out, who knows?
10. Germany (-1)
Harsh. But to realistically get into the Quarter-Finals, Germany will not just have to beat USA, Belgium or Japan - maybe two of that high-flying trio. Talk about a mountain peak on your first Olympic climb! Having not had all of their players available for the full preparation period, it's difficult to gauge the synergy that new guard Alexis Peterson will have.
She's produced nice numbers and now that Satou Sabally has returned to action, good things are on the horizon. But navigating the 'Group of Death' could be a step too far and too soon. Kudos to young Frieda Buhner for making the roster after some amazing FIBA youth displays.
9. Japan (-5)
We can hear that intake of breath. That deep shock in your voice. A drop of five places? Yes, it looks outrageous. But if it makes AkATSUKI JAPAN fans feel any better, there is every chance that this could end up being third place and another Olympic medal. So why the drop?
Yes, Saki Hayashi is balling out, Rui Machida and the Olympics are a love match and Evelyn Mawuli has been in hot form. But, this 'Group of Death' is brutal. The team in 3rd place might miss out on the Quarter-Finals because of point difference. Only two third-placed teams advance and with USA to play, and no huge underdog, it's going to be so difficult.
8. Serbia (+2)
Feels generous? In reality that is probably true, since there has been nothing very impressive in preparation at all. In fact, it's not been a very inspiring build-up. But there is a huge opportunity in Group A for Serbia to squeeze their way into the Quarter-Finals.
China, Spain and Puerto Rico are not playing at their highest level, so it might end up being a bit of a battle - maybe even getting slightly ugly at times. Marina Maljkovic and Serbia know how to grind out results. They have the veteran players to get it done and so a last eight place would not be a surprise.
7. Spain (+1)
It's such a hard challenge on where exactly to pitch this Spanish team. As is the case with Serbia, they could have been in a more challenging group and that would have been a worry. At times during preparation they have looked good - such as beating Canada by 20 points in their last outing. But there have been other times like when down by as many as 20 to Australia in this past week, they have looked the opposite.
The crunch Group game against Serbia could really shape their destiny in this competition and it's one they probably have to win if they want to continue their podium dreams. Do they have enough firepower to battle with the absolute top nations? Maybe, but also maybe not. It's why their renowned defense will likely be the difference-maker.
6. Canada (+1)
After a surprise loss to Puerto Rico in preparation and a 20-point loss to Spain, the warning shots have been fired. However, Victor Lapena and his team still benefit from a move up of one place, since they will be confident that they can get a win against Nigeria and then push France and Australia hard - especially as they took a prep win against the latter.
Fully stocked again, there might be a concern they are a little under-cooked collectively, but in Nirra Fields, Kia Nurse, Bridget Carleton, Natalie Achonwa and Kayla Alexander they have a lineup that can do some damage and push them into the last eight. After that, who knows? They just have to hope everyone is healthy, with Achonwa having sat out the last prep game.
5. China (+1)
It's hard to even believe and come to terms with the fact that China have lost 10 preparation games and won only a couple of times. So it might seem strange to move them up a place, but they are not exactly in the 'Group of Death' and they also have everyone back in the mix, including their leader, Meng Li.
Can China flick a switch and just get back to the level they showed in 2022 and 2023? Perhaps, but it will really take quite a turnaround from their disappointing 2024 displays to make a push for a medal. Then again, with Xu Han, Yueru Li and Meng Li, they have ballers who might actually bring the podium steps back into sight.
4. Australia (+1)
Are the Opals medal-worthy? It's an interesting debate. They've done enough for a Semi-Finals slot at least - which after their bronze at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2022, would confirm them being back at the top table again. It was a largely positive preparation period and now fully stocked with all players, anticipation and expectation levels will be high.
The same question still dominates though. What is Australia's most effective and best five on the floor? Your guess is as good as ours. And just maybe, Sandy Brondello is not exactly sure yet which might not be a bad thing as that will only drive competition within the squad.
3. Belgium (-1)
After an outstanding preparation period, it maybe feels harsh to drop down the Cats - even if it is just one shade of metal from silver to bronze. Which by the way, would still represent yet another historic and incredible accomplishment. The 'Group of Death' is going to take a toll and leave some potentially lasting wounds in terms of fatigue and being able to operate at the absolute top level all the way through.
Anyone upset at Belgium 'only' being written down as standing on the third podium step, take a deep breath - there is worse to come. If Belgium were to lose to a highly dangerous Japan team in what has the makings of another classic, then they might end up being 9th.
2. France (+1)
The first ball has not even been thrown up and it feels like we are getting carried away with home hopes and being swept along on a wave of optimism. Yet France have a lot more than just good feeling, momentum and national fervor and pride. The force is with them in every way. They have a huge chance to replicate their London 2012 exploits and make the Final.
They will need some luck, but their roster has aligned beautifully on paper. Can they cope with the pressure? Surely once Marine Johannes puts up a deep triple from somewhere near the VIP section - or maybe even the parking lot, the energy will soar and the nerves will die.
1. USA (=)
You could argue this USA team will have to work harder than any other to continue their staggering Olympic winning streak because of the list of tough games they face. But even in the unlikely event they slipped up in the Group phase, would that not make them the ultimate dangerous sporting animal?
They have MVP candidates swamping the roster, were probably stung and sore at losing to the All-WNBA team in preparation and ultimately, will seriously not want to be known as THAT team who lost at Paris and ended the streak. It has to be USA all the way. Surely?
FIBA
*The Power Rankings are entirely subjective and is in no way a true, accurate ranking system. All comments are purely those of the author and expert panel.