PARIS (France) - There is an air of potential unpredictability about Group A of the Women's Olympic Basketball Tournament 2024 Paris, with just one unexpected result having the potential to throw this pool into an exciting and chaotic spin.
Here's how things are looking ahead of the big tip-off.
The Favorite: China
Making everyone sit up and take notice at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2022 when they rode their way to the Final, they returned to Sydney 12 months later to land the FIBA Women's Asia Cup 2023 title. Powered mainly by the fabulous Xu Han who was MVP.
Outside their favorite Australian city, things have not been as productive - to say the least. Blown away at home against France in the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament 2024, their Paris 2024 preparation form has been absolutely alarming - at least results-wise.
The time for excuses ends right here, right now. They should have their big-hitters all on board, including the massively influential Meng Li. So, they surely have to be installed as Group favorites. But out of form and rhythm, reputation alone doesn't put wins on the table.
The Underdog: Puerto Rico
Searching for a landmark first-ever Olympic victory after leaving winless on their Tokyo 2020 debut, it's not an impossible ask for the Islanders. After all, they made the Quarter-Finals of the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup less than two years ago.
They can have confidence that if they play well, they are likely to be able to push Spain and Serbia in particular. But there is a lot of pressure on twin turbos Ariella Guirantes and Mya Hollingshed who need help from the rest of the team production-wise.
The Pivotal Game: Serbia vs Spain
Both of these nations feel like they are still in something of a transition after losing some big name players since Tokyo 2020. Serbia have waved goodbye to Sonja Vasic, Jelena Brooks and Aleksandra Crvendakic - all leaders. Spain have since seen Silvia Dominguez, Laia Palau and Marta Xargay depart since they took to the floor in the Japanese capital.
Spain should be slight favorites, but with these two expected to battle for second and third place respectively, the difference between these spots could be vast when it comes to the Quarter-Finals draw - or maybe one will miss out altogether. These European giants know each other well so it might be more brutal than a classic, but it will be compelling to watch.
The Open Question: Is a three-way tie a real possibility?
Even if logic or the script (however you wish to define it) has China top, Puerto Rico bottom, with Spain and Serbia in between, the whole dynamic of Group A will be turned upside down with just one single surprise result.
That might be more extreme as Puerto Rico producing a shock maiden victory. Meanwhile, there is also a scenario where Spain viably beats an out-of-sorts China, but then loses to Euro rivals Serbia - for example. A three-way tie of teams with 2-1 records isn't exactly impossible. Plus, women's basketball is renowned for being predictably unpredictable, so watch out!
More?
Don't forget to check the Team Profiles for: China, Puerto Rico, Serbia and Spain.
FIBA