27 Jul
    10 Aug 2024

    Who will qualify for the Quarter-Finals? Who will shine? FIBA Experts weigh in

    10 min to read
    Long Read

    The competition looks as tough and unpredictable as ever in both the Olympic basketball tournaments. Yet our experts think they know which teams will make it to the podium.

    MIES (Switzerland) - The USA men and women are usually the favorites to capture gold at the Olympics.

    But what about this summer, when both tournaments are arguably the deepest and toughest of all time? Which teams are going to reach the podium?

    We asked our experts.

    Jeff Taylor is a long-time FIBA writer, columnist and veteran FIBA Media play-by-play commentator who was just on the mic at the OQT in Piraeus where Greece won to reach the Olympics for the first time since 2008.

    Mike Taylor is a veteran coach who held the reins of Poland for several years. Now at the helm of Winnipeg Sea Bears in Canada, he was the CEBL Coach of the Year in 2023. Taylor commentated alongside Jeff for FIBA Media at EuroBasket 2022 and at last year's FIBA Basketball World Cup in Manila.

    Liz Mills made history as the first woman to lead a team, Kenya, to the AfroBasket and then coached the Morans at the 2021 event in Rwanda. She has held the reins of AS Salé and ABC Fighters in the Basketball Africa League, and coached Bangui Sporting Club to qualification for the BAL in 2023.

    Mark Clark is a veteran coach and also a long-time commentator at FIBA events who recently worked as a color analyst at the OQT in Riga where legendary point guard Marcelinho Huertas and Brazil shocked the field to reach the Olympics.

    Shona Thorburn, a two-time Canada Olympic point guard who is now a coach at French top-flight side Basket Landes, was the color commentator for FIBA Media at the OQT in Valencia, where hosts Spain won.

    Carlan Gay a veteran FIBA commentator and was on the mic doing play by play at the OQT in San Juan, where Puerto Rico prevailed over Lithuania in the Final to reach the Olympics for the first time since 2004.

    Who's making it to the Quarter-Finals for the Men?

    FIBA Patty and Australia have looked good in the buildup

    Mike

    • Group A: Canada, Greece and Australia

    • Group B: France, Germany and Brazil

    • Group C: USA and Serbia

    Jeff

    • Group A: Canada, Greece and Australia

    • Group B. France, Germany and Japan

    • Group C: US and Serbia

    Brazil could be poised for a nice run in France

    Liz

    • Group A: Australia, Canada and Greece

    • Group B: Germany, France and Brazil

    • Group C: USA and Serbia

    Mark Clark believes South Sudan will make waves

    Mark

    • Group A: Greece, Canada and Spain

    • Group B: France and Germany

    • Group C: USA, Serbia and South Sudan

    Carlan

    • Group A: Canada, Greece and Spain

    • Group B: France, Germany and Brazil

    • Group C: USA and Serbia

    Shona

    • Group A: Canada, Greece and Australia

    • Group B: France, Germany and Brazil

    • Group C: Serbia, USA

    Who's making it to the Quarter-Finals for the Women?

    Mark

    • Group A: Spain, China and Serbia

    • Group B: France and Australia

    • Group C: USA, Japan and Germany

    Can China reach their best form in France?

    Liz

    • Group A: Serbia and Spain

    • Group B: Canada, Australia and France

    • Group C: USA, Japan and Belgium

    Everyone expects Marine Johannes and France to at bare minimum reach the Quarter-Finals

    Shona

    • Group A: China and Serbia

    • Group B: France, Canada and Australia

    • Group C: USA, Belgium and Japan

    Mike

    • Group A: Spain and China

    • Group B: France, Australia and Canada

    • Group C: USA, Belgium and Germany

    Carlan

    • Group A: Spain and China

    • Group B: France, Australia and Canada

    • Group C: USA, Belgium and Japan

    Jeff

    • Group A: Spain and China

    • Group B: France, Australia and Canada

    • Group C: USA, Belgium and Japan

    Which men's teams will reach the podium?

    USA have high-flying Anthony Edwards in their lineup
    • Mike: USA, France and Canada

    • Jeff: France, Canada and USA

    • Liz: USA, Germany and Serbia

    • Mark: USA, Serbia and Canada

    • Carlan: USA, Canada and France

    • Shona: USA, Canada and Serbia

    Which women's teams will reach the podium?

    • Mike: USA, France and Spain

    • Jeff: Belgium, USA and France

    • Liz: USA, Belgium and Japan

    • Mark: USA, China and Japan

    • Carlan: USA, Australia and Belgium

    • Shona: USA, France and Belgium

       

    Australia's Lauren Jackson returns to the Olympics 12 years after her last appearance in London

    Good surprise in the Men's tournament?

    Shona

    Canada - Even with a star-studded roster and the success they had last summer at the FIBA World Cup, having not participated in an Olympics in 24 years and being a possible medal contender is a great storyline, eh.

    Will Dillon Brooks and Canada get to the podium for the second straight summer?

    Mike

    France will put together a great Olympic run powered by the home court. Motivated by their disappointing 18th place finish at the World Cup last summer, Les Bleus will step up to make a podium run that helps usher in the next generation of French basketball on a world stage.

    Carlan

    I think Brazil getting to the Quarter-Finals and maybe even beyond would shock some people. They have the perfect blend of size and strong guard play that will make them tricky to beat.

    Mark

    South Sudan in the Quarter-Finals. African basketball can compete on the world level.

    Jeff

    Japan will create an unforgettable memory for their basketball program with a win and reach the Quarter-Finals.

    Liz

    Australia - after some interesting selection decisions, the Boomers have shown glimpses of a team that can compete with the top European and North American teams. A few results going their way and they could see themselves back competing for a medal. South Sudan - an amazing and inspirational team that has the entire continent behind them.

    Good surprise in the Women's tournament?

    Japan's women are playing well

    Shona

    Japan are back!!! Took them a while to find back their identity after the Tokyo Olympics and a change in coach, but they seem to be hitting their stride and playing at the top of their game. Not a team you want to cross with in the Quarter-Finals.

    Jeff

    Marine Fauthoux has made it back for France after a tough year with injuries. She'll find some playing rhythm and give her usual inspirational, meaningful minutes to help the hosts go on a deep run.

    Germany have been on an upward trajectory since the hire of Lisa Thomaidis

    Mark

    Germany continue on the upward curve.

    Carlan

    I don't know if it should be a surprise but I have high hopes for what the Australian Opals will do at the Olympics. The group knows each other really well and they performed well under pressure at the FIBA WOQTs. This feels like a unit that's ready to peak.

    Mike

    Spain, silver medal winners in Rio, will be stronger from the adversity they have faced the last few campaigns. La Roja will dig deep in Paris and will make it back to the podium.

    Are Nigeria going to reach new heights in France?

    Liz

    Nigeria, with a talented roster that has been building great momentum under Coach Rena Wakama. I think they have the ability to cause some upsets in the group stage.

    Bad surprise for the Men's tournament?

    Mike

    Spain are playing in the ultra-competitive Group A. I see opponents Canada, Greece and Australia edging La Familia despite the legendary presence of six-time Olympian Rudy Fernandez. These outstanding teams in Group A will give us the best games of this Olympics, but something has to give. Spain have done a great job evolving beyond the golden generation, but a rising Canada and hot Greece will be too much for them this summer.

    Jeff

    I want to pick Serbia to reach the podium but fear they may not, even with Jokic. The biggest problem facing this team is that there are so many other significant hurdles to clear. Serbia will need to be at their best in every game because there will be no letup from USA, Canada, Australia, Germany and France, although Les Bleus need to figure a lot of things out themselves, too.

    Some experts are worried about France's chances

    Shona

    France. Who do they go to when they need a basket? Are roles defined? Will the pressure oh being the host country get to them?

    Liz

    Whilst I think this will be the most competitive men's Olympic tournament I see there being a big distinction between the top 8-9 teams and the bottom 3-4 teams.

    Carlan

    Australia not making the knockout stage will hit the reset button on a team that finished with a medal at the last games.

    Mark

    France not winning a medal will be crossroads for French Men's team.

    Bad surprise for the Women's tournament?

    Mike

    Japan. In the extremely competitive Group C, I believe USA and Belgium will establish themselves as two of the strongest teams in the competition and Germany will be a positive surprise.

    Shona

    China... They should be continuing from their success at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2022, but in the last couple years they have not looked like that same team that had great success in Sydney. Similar roster, more experience, how does it seem like they have taken a step backwards?

    Mark

    France eliminated in Quarter-Finals.

    Jeff

    After their second-place finish at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup, China, No. 2 in the FIBA Women's World Ranking, Presented by Nike, will come back down to earth and miss out on the podium.

    Liz

    I think we're going to see a couple of blowouts on the women's side of the competition as there are clear favorites and some teams that may be overwhelmed by the talent they are facing, as well as the occasion.

    Carlan

    France going home before the Semi-Finals. Playing at home is usually a big advantage but I see them failing to get through.

    Serbia coach Svetislav Pesic said last month the USA is better than the 1992 Dream Team. What are your thoughts?

    Liz

    Totally agree. This team has more depth and versatility than the 1992 team.

    Mark

    The Dream Team was the Dream Team. It will never be surpassed. It was the first in so naay ways and spanned generations.

    Jeff

    This to me is borderline sacrilege 😁! Pesic is a genius so I know he surely can't believe this, can he?! I think this is mind games. Even so, it's difficult to compare teams of different eras, generations.

    Carlan

    I disagree. I think if all the current players were in the primes of their careers it would easily be the best American team on paper. Even though the likes of LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are still considered some of the best in the NBA they are no longer in the primes of their respective careers. When the Dream Team came together outside of Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, the members were all in their primes.

    Mike

    This is an outstanding piece of pre-game noise and distraction from a great veteran coach. While everyone discusses a comparison between the Dream Team and current USA Super team, Serbia waits for July 28th Group C Olympic opener. I do not believe those distractions work on a focused and determined USA and think we should wait until the Americans earn a gold medal before entering into any all-time comparisons.

    Shona

    I am not sure we can say this USA team is better than the Dream Team. I do think the USA are locked in and wanting to send a message that they are still the best in the world. Lots of superstars and only one ball, who will be willing to take on a different role....

    What would a potential sixth gold medal represent for USA's Diana Taurasi?

    USA's Diana Taurasi will play at the Olympics a sixth time

    Shona

    GOAT STATUS!!! I don't think in my lifetime we will see another player duplicate what DT has done.

    Mike

    Diana Taurasi is already a legend of the women's game, but a sixth gold medal would elevate her even higher in the sports world. Six gold medals would be six reasons Diana Taurasi should be at the top of the list for greatest women's basketball player ever.

    Jeff

    Further cement her status as the GOAT (although Emma Meesseman is the best in the world now).

    Liz

    She would go down as the greatest basketball player in Olympic history. No discussion.

    Mark

    A statement that she is a winner, an achievement that puts her in the elite of Olympic athletes.

    Carlan

    It would cement her as the most decorated and best team sport athlete in American history. We'll talk about her accomplishments across her career, but what she'd been able to do leading Team USA to glory multiple times will be discussed forever.

    You may also want to read this:

    Roster Tracker: Women's Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024

    Tracker: Preparation games for the Women’s Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024

    You may also want to check these:

    Roster Tracker: Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024

    Tracker: Preparation games for the Men’s Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024

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