Who will get medals? Who will shine? FIBA Experts weigh in

PARIS (France) - Eight teams are one win away from playing for a medal at the Olympics. The Quarter-Finals are set.

The four countries and numerous players that did not advance nevertheless made a big impression at the Games.

What do our experts think? Read on to find out.

Jeff Taylor is a long-time FIBA writer, columnist and veteran FIBA Media play-by-play commentator.

Mike Taylor is a veteran coach who held the reins of Poland for several years. Now at the helm of Winnipeg Sea Bears in Canada, he was the CEBL Coach of the Year in 2023. Taylor commentated alongside Jeff for FIBA Media at EuroBasket 2022 and at last year's FIBA Basketball World Cup in Manila.

Liz Mills made history as the first woman to lead a team, Kenya, to the AfroBasket and then coached the Morans at the 2021 event in Rwanda. She has held the reins of AS Salé and ABC Fighters in the Basketball Africa League, and coached Bangui Sporting Club to qualification for the BAL in 2023.

Mark Clark is a veteran coach and long-time commentator for FIBA Media.

Shona Thorburn, a two-time Canada Olympic point guard, a coach at French top-flight side Basket Landes and a FIBA Media commentator.

Carlan Gay is a veteran FIBA Media commentator.

Germany v Greece

Jeff: Greece held it together after a couple of tough losses. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been his normal self, Vasilis Toliopoulos has blossomed into a scoring threat and Thomas Walkup has played hard on both ends of the floor. Vassilis Spanoulis has done great work. They are not going to beat Germany, who looked amazing against France.

Shona: Greece squeezed into the Quarter-Finals with a big win over Australia. My biggest concern for Greece is who else is going to score outside of the Giannis. Germany will be ready with a defensive plan just like we saw against France, who they held to only 27 points at the half. The scary thing about this German team is, they might be playing better than they did last summer when they won the World Cup!

Carlan: Giannis has been terrific on both sides of the floor and I expect that to continue in the quarterfinals. The problem is Greece hasn't been able to give him the help he needs to go further. Germany cruise in this one.

Mark: I've been so impressed with Germany but Greece get better every game and coach Spanoulis has a group working together. Giannis has and Greece have gotten better every game. The backcourt has become very efficient. They contain Schroder and control the glass for the win.

Mike: Germany looked like a world champions closing the group stage in top form. The core that captured World Cup 2023 is ready to make a podium run in France. "FIBA Franz" Wagner has led the way for Germany, while Dennis Schroeder has also been outstanding and leading the competition with 9 assists per game. Germany are the 3rd highest scoring offense and have the second best field goal percentage at 50.5 percent.

Their Quarter-Final opponents Greece have been slowed to an 11th ranked 77.7 points per game while hitting only 30 percent from deep. Greece have been a one man show offensively with Giannis leading in scoring but only hitting 25 percent from 3 and 67 percent from the foul line.

The Greeks have also fouled the most defensively and that could be a major issue against a German team shooting a second ranked 88.6 percent as a team from the foul line. Greece are working for better balance offensively than last year but ultimately struggles to solve the puzzle due to low percentage 3-point shooting. "Auf Geht's Deutschland" --- Germany wins and moves on.

Liz: Whilst Greece had their best game against Australia there are some glaring gaps where their offense becomes stagnant, especially if they're not shooting the 3 well and struggle when Giannis is not on the floor. Germany on the other hand, continues to look like a well-oiled machine. They are efficient on both ends of the floor and have been led by Franz Wagner and Dennis Schröder who have both had stellar performances so far. Germany will win this one.

Serbia v Australia

Mark: After a good first game, Australia have lost their way. Dominated by Greece, I cannot see Australia having enough options to trouble Serbia who will medal. Serbia to dominate.

Liz: After a blowout loss to USA, Serbia has re-focused with Nikola Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic leading this team to wins in their remaining group games. With their ability to fire offensively and lock down defensively, Serbia are the favorites in this match up.

Australia has had the benefit of playing three high quality games as they head into the Quarter-Finals. Turnovers, however, are a major concern and against an elite European team like Serbia, this could be the difference in them winning or losing this game. This will be the most tightly fought game of the Quarter-Finals and Australia would have to play their best game of the tournament to win this one. Australia by less than five points.

Shona: I like the mix of veteran leadership and young talent Australia has. I also don’t think we have seen the best of Patty Mills yet. If Patty gets hot, Serbia will be in for a long game. But, it's Serbia, last year's silver medalists at the World Cup and the addition of Nikola Jokic, who is averaging almost a triple double. I think Serbia just have too many threats and Australia won't have the answers.

Jeff: There are great players and great coaches in this one. Dyson Daniels will soon be viewed as one of the Boomers' best young guns with Josh Giddey, while Jock Landale has grown so much that he could be Australia's most important man. He works hard! He is tough, reliable. He's a fighter, averaging 17.7 points and 9.7 rebounds.

Serbia have the talent and smarts and athleticism to win this. They share the ball, second only to USA at 25.7 assists per game (although Australia are third at 21.7). Nikola Jokic is focused. I think it's a close game. Australia are battle hardened after three really hard games. I expect Serbia to edge it.

Carlan: Look, I wasn't high on Australia coming into the Olympics, but they are here and have a chance to return to the podium. I think they match up well with Serbia and the slow start that plagued them against Greece won't be a factor in this one. Australia goes through and will play for a medal once again.

Mike: I am really looking forward to this Quarter-Final as the Australia's "Play for your Mate" mentality meets the incredible "Serbian pride" for a ticket to the Semi-Finals. Serbia plays at a faster pace, producing the second leading scoring offense while Australia averaged eighth in group play.

Australia's team effort has been centered around big man Jock Landale, who has had an excellent group stage, young talent Josh Giddey and veteran Patty Mills. For Serbia, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Vasilije Micic and Aleksa Avramovic have played to their high-level Serbian standard.

With respect to all of these outstanding players, Nikola Jokic is the difference-maker. The superstar Serbian Center will lead Serbia past Australia in a hard-fought game as Serbia hopes for a next step towards the podium this summer in France.

France v Canada

Jeff: France have the talent but they are not jelling. They're fortunate to be in the Quarter-Finals after the overtime escape against Japan. The French are still trying to figure out how they want to play.

Canada are relentless. It took a great team to survive the punches that Spain threw at them in the Group Phase. Their point guards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Andrew Nembhard, are two of the best in this tournament. Nembhard has fortified the backcourt.

For France, the defeat to Germany was just one loss. They still have time to turn this around. Their advantages? They are at home. They have four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. They have plenty of experience. The big disadvantage for France is the backcourt. We haven't seen the best of France. Something tells me they will come together, finally click and get the win.

Mark: Canada believe they can win and have really bought in to coach Fernandez's philosophy. France look disjointed and have struggled in the backcourt. But France at home with crowd and they have found ways to win could upset Canada. But SGA and Canada will get it done and jump out to the early lead for the win.

Carlan: The chemistry just looks off for France. Canada on the other hand are rolling and chasing gold. I expect Canada to be physical with Victor Wembanyama even if it means a couple of players using all five fouls. Canada needs to clean up the free throw woes if they plan on medaling though.

Shona: Canada will be going up against 13,000 screaming French fans but I actually think this team loves those moments. We saw the crowd take over and try to help Spain pull off a comeback win to keep their Olympic hopes alive and Canada with every stop and score just enjoyed silencing the crowd.

Canada have one thing on their minds and that’s reaching the podium and they have played like that so far. Won’t be easy but I think Canada will win this one.

Mike: While Canada have leaned on their defense, excellent guard play at the Olympics sparked a fourth best scoring offense proving "O Canada" is more than lines from the beloved National Anthem...

One unnoticed stat that has been powering the Canada offense has been the ability to get to the free-throw line. They attempt a by-far-and-away best 76 free throws through group play. If Canada are vulnerable, the team's small front court and ability to rebound (11th in rebounds per game) will be challenged in the Quarter-Final against France who have played with both big men Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama. The "St-Eiffel Towers" lineup sparked the game-breaking run that beat Brazil and gives the French unmatched rim protection.

But France has been disjointed offensively at times and look as if the pieces do not really fit. Wemby has shown flashes of brilliance and veteran forward Nicolas Batum has been a stabilizing presence but the team struggled. Despite advantages on the boards and on home court, Canada's continued combination of great guard play and lock down perimeter defense will propel the team one step closer to a medal.

Liz: France is lucky to have made it through to the Quarter-Finals. The coaching staff has still not found a way to effectively utilize the talent on this roster and there has only been small glimpses of how good this team could really be. Canada on the other hand have come through the group of death and stood up to every challenge that has come their way. Too much talent and depth. Canada will easily win this one.

USA v Brazil

Liz Mills: USA are an offensive juggernaut and are currently outscoring Brazil by 25.4 points per game. While Brazil may be able to make this game interesting if they can hit their 3s, they don't have the defensive abilities or the depth to make this a real contest. USA has too much depth and talent and will roll through Brazil by 20+ points.

Mark: Every stat, every scenario has a USA win. But coach Aco Petrovic and the veterans in the Brazil line-up will find a way to be competitive. I just cannot see a way that Brazil will shoot the ball well enough or get stops to cause the upset. USA wins.

Mike: The USA depth and star power have been the difference. One game it can be LeBron James, the next Kevin Durant, another Anthony Edwards or any player on the roster. No team has been able to match the USA bench. USA have the tournament's highest scoring offense.

They have averaged an astounding 136.3 efficiency per game, a good indicator of the stars playing together. Brazil showed heart to advance from Group Phase to the Quarter-Finals led by veteran guard Vitor Benite and forward Bruno Caboclo but their 10th ranked scoring offense will not be able to keep pace with the American offensive output.

One factor holding Brazil back has been turnovers as they led group play with 52 for 17.3 per game. The game may not be close, but it will be fun to watch. USA will advance.

Jeff: Brazil can cause some problems for the USA. Remember when Marcelinho Huertas and Brazil nearly upset the Kevin Durant-led USA in the Group Phase of the 2010 FIBA Basketball World Cup in Istanbul? Brazil do like to run and can score.

But not like the USA. The four-time defending Olympic champions look as good as ever, averaging a tournament-best 106.5 points per game. They're making shots from deep, 31 of 62 for a tournament best 50 percent. If Brazil can hit three-pointers for the second game in a row, they might make it interesting - for a while. But the USA are laser focused. They're even shooting 63.6 percent inside the arc, which is second overall in France.

Add to that the speed, the athleticism, the chemistry. I think USA win.

Carlan: The key to beating Team USA is the 3-ball, guard play and rebounding. Brazil made 45.3 percent of its triples in the group stage. Brazil has had great guard play from Yago Santos, Vitor Benite and Marcelinho Huertas. Brazil has also rebounded well in the tournament pulling down 38.7 boards per game. If they can slow Team USA down and make it a half-court game they'll have a chance.

I don't think they'll be able to do it.

Shona: I said it before the tournament and I will say it again… this USA team is very motivated. They want to send a message to the world that they are still the best! For me the best part of this Brazil team is seeing Raul Neto back playing for his national team, not many players would be back less than a year after suffering the kind of injury he did last year. Props to him! USA will win this one.

Which team or player did you love in the Group Phase that has not advanced?

Carlan: How fun would it have been for South Sudan to make the quarters? That up-tempo style of basketball is a joy to watch. I look forward to seeing them on the world stage once again.

Liz: Without doubt the team of the tournament so far has been South Sudan. They have represented their country and Africa with passion and pride and shown the rest of the world what they and Africa are capable of. The potential for them to win a medal at the next Olympics is a real possibility.

Shona: Japan!!! I know they didn’t win a game but I think that heartbreaking loss to France was hard to bounce back from. Tough call going against the most exciting point guard in this tournament, Yuki Kawamura.

That, along with the ejection of Rui Hachimura, saw all Japanese fans in shock. I think the upside is they will learn from this experience. Now we just need to wait four more years to see what they can do.

Mark: Japan, as they were do close to the winning against France. They play with an enjoyment that is infectious. Or South Sudan as they truly represent more than just a basketball team. They are for real. They belong at this level and will the first of the African teams to make real noise.

Jeff: Spain played their hearts out. They showed so much pride, as you would expect from a team that has a winning tradition. The loss to Australia ultimately undermined them because they could not have done any more against the greatest Canada team of all time.

The player that fell in love with - again - was Yuki Kawamura. He finished the Group Phase as the fifth leading scorer at 20.3 points per game and the third-leading assists (7.7 apg). Great leader at just 23 years of age.

Mike: Spain left it all on the floor in their 88-85 loss to Canada. The difference between winning the group and being eliminated was razor thin and Spain competed so well despite falling short. I have tremendous respect for the Spanish national team and what they have accomplished throughout the years under Sergio Scariolo. Not every tournament can go your way and even coming up short, Spain can be proud of their effort.

My favorite player also plays for Spain. The historic storyline of legendary Rudy Fernandez, playing in his sixth Olympic games (every Olympics since 2004 along with two silver medals and one bronze), added something special that made basketball fans take a moment to appreciate "Rudy" and the proud Spanish tradition over the last 20 years.

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