MIES (Switzerland) - It's been 60 years since Brazil last won an Olympic medal in men's basketball. Hence, it would be a major upset if coach Aco Petrovic and his crew climbed the podium in Paris.
Then again, you can't blame them one bit for hoping it could end that way, especially after they stunned the capacity crowd in Riga and kept Latvia at bay in the Final of the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament 2024 Latvia.
Brazil were the only non-host to reach the Olympics from the four tournaments, and now they get to face another home team and another home crowd, as they are drawn together with France in Group B of the Olympics.
Germany and Japan are also in there, fighting for a spot in the Quarter-Finals, either as a top two team from this group, or as one of the top two third-placed teams from all groups.
The Roster
When Marcelinho Huertas told his family and friends he dreams of playing at the Olympics in 2024, they probably looked at him like he is a mad scientist from a 1990s disaster movie. And still, he found the right formula.
Pick your description: the 41-year-old point god; the man who started playing professionally in 2001 when a lot of current Olympians weren't even born; the eternal great who owns the top spot for most assists in the Spanish Liga Endesa history, as well as the all-time mark in the Basketball Champions League, where he is the reigning MVP of the Season; the pass-first player who dished out the last assist to Kobe Bryant; the guy who just extended his contract with La Laguna Tenerife for two more years, meaning he'll play at least until he's 43.
Marcelinho Huertas is incredible. Probably the best decision-maker off of one foot in international basketball, he punished every single drop coverage at the FIBA OQT tournament in Latvia, and his passing skills opened up the floor for others to shine.
Yago Santos is now an elite european cup player, capable of probing through any defense with his blazing speed. Vitor Benite, Leo Meindl and Gui Santos provide the outside punch with their shooting, while Georginho De Paula gives coach Petrovic another great ball-handler option to run the offense and find open men.
Lucas Dias and Cristiano Felicio bring loads of experience under both rims, but all of them were actually playing second fiddle in Latvia.
That's because Bruno Caboclo went crazy. With his 2.31m (7'7'') wingspan, he is a valuable defensive weapon, while his offensive prowess were exploited best when he played the 'five' position, chasing down offensive rebounds and finishing strong around the rim.
Caboclo is 28 now, no longer a prospect, but firmly in his prime, and if he can repeat his performances from Latvia, all the French, German and Japanese bigs could be in trouble, because guys like him are a nightmare matchup.
The best part is that he enjoys playing with these guys. They work so well together and have been in similar lineups for years, meaning they find solutions naturally after spending all those summers in the same locker room.
The Question
How bad are the injuries? Yago Santos struggled to get to 100 percent just before the tournament in Latvia, and then he suffered another injury in the Final, while Raul Neto only played in one of their four games in Riga, coming back from a previous long term injury.
Coach Petrovic will figure it out no matter who gets knocked down, but in an event like this, Brazil need 12 healthy men to do some damage and chase the Quarter-Finals once again.
The Hope
Teams that win their FIBA OQT just before the Olympics usually have a head start, they are coming in red hot and can just carry on after they had already played high-pressure games just weeks earlier.
If Brazil continue in the same direction they set this summer, they could dream of making the Quarter-Finals, or making the Semi-Finals, and potentially even picking up a medal.
The last time that happened was in 1964 in Japan.
The Fear
The iconic Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell duet claimed there "Ain't No Mountain High Enough" around the time Brazil won that aforementioned medal. However, the mountains are high enough to keep Brazil from getting through.
France will deploy their gigantic tandem of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, Germany won the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 by playing with (at least) two physical bigs on the floor the entire time, while Brazil like playing small-ball lineups.
The fear is that against such big teams, Brazil may not have an answer in the frontcourt, and could end their magical summer without another upset at the Paris Olympics.
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