PARIS (France) - Consider this Chapter 1 of the newly discovered Serbia vs Australia rivalry. The men will battle for a spot in the Semi-Finals on Tuesday, before the women's teams open up Chapter 2 and have their own Serbia vs Australia Quarter-Final on the court on Wednesday.
There were some prequels to Chapter one, though. Serbia and Australia know each other very well, and there will be no secrets as they tip it off at 14:30 local time on Tuesday.
Key matchup
Bogdan Bogdanovic vs Patty Mills
The two shooting guards spent some time together as teammates with the Atlanta Hawks last season, and they talked a lot about getting to the Olympics and playing their best basketball here, as Bogdan Bogdanovic confirmed to us a few days ago.
Now, we are ready for a shootout. Patty Mills averaged 13.3 points in the group stage at the Pierre Mauroy Stadium, while making just 7-of-17 shots from beyond the three-point line.
However, Mills already has a 28-point game against Serbia this summer. When the two teams had their friendly game in Abu Dhabi, it was vintage Patty who led Australia to a double-digit win over Svetislav Pesic's team a week before the Olympics.
Mills will play his fifth Olympic Quarter-Final. Only Andrew Gaze, Luis Scola, Pau Gasol and Rudy Fernandez have five appearances in the Quarter-Finals, and Mills's career average suggests he puts up 22.0 points in this phase.
On the other side of the scale, Serbian fans will point their finger to the lineups from that friendly game in Abu Dhabi and say that missing Bogdan Bogdanovic makes Serbia a whole different team.
Bogdanovic has been productive so far at the 2024 Olympics, getting 19.0 points, with 4.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists, while shooting 54 percent from the field, 53 percent from deep on six attempts per game, and making 89 percent of his free throws.
The idea is clear why we picked this matchup. Whoever gets hot of these two, will be that much closer to winning the game.
X-factors
Australia's youth vs Serbia's ball pressure
Being a point guard means you have the responsibility of orchestrating your whole team, which is why it takes some time to develop young players at "one," as you want them to be as mature as possible.
Coach Brian Goorjian said that his youngsters Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels struggled against Greece because they are just not as experienced at this level as the Greek point guards, and now they face a tougher challenge.
That's because coach Pesic loves putting a lot of pressure on the ball with his lefty trio. Aleksa Avramovic usually starts on the toughest opposing guard, but then Ognjen Dobric has the tools to take over.
Against South Sudan, Marko Guduric was there off the bench to provide more defense on Carlik Jones, and all three of them know how to be physical while avoiding foul trouble.
Huge test for Giddey and Daniels, especially after coach Goorjian put an emphasis on that area.
Stats don't lie
Both teams love the open court, and they will search for fast break points every single time. Even if it means Nikola Jokic has to throw a full court pass after opponent's made free throws, or if Josh Giddey gets the defensive rebound and goes coast to coast.
Serbia score 21.3 fast break points per game, which means Australia will have to control their turnovers as much as possible in this one. They averaged 16.7 per game in the group stage.
Meanwhile, Jock Landale, Nick Kay and other bigs are especially dangerous in offensive rebounding. Australia averaged 11.3 boards on that end, getting 13.3 seconds chance points per game - that is the only non-shooting area in which they were better than Serbia during pool play.
Past matchups
Back in 2016, Serbia and Australia were in the same group at the Rio Olympics, and Australia wasted no time sending a message to the rest of the world with a comfy 95-80 group stage win over Serbia.
Matthew Dellavedova was unstoppable in that one, pouring in 23 points with 13 assists in 29 minutes of action, and Australia were a +21 team with him on the floor.
Dellavedova is still with the team, as are Patty Mills and Joe Ingles. Mills scored 26, Ingles had 10 for the Boomers, this win propelling them to second spot in the group behind the USA.
However, not a lot of people in Australia or Serbia will remember that game when you mention the 2016 Olympics. That's because they saw each other again in the Semi-Finals in Brazil.
A defensive masterpiece by Serbia saw Australia score just 14 first half points. The lead ballooned to 31 points in the second half, as Serbia made it to the championship game with a convincing 87-61 win.
For Serbia, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nikola Jokic are the only two returning members from 2016. Jokic had 9 points and 11 rebounds in that Semi-Final, Bogdanovic finished with 6 and 6 in the same categories.
The only other time when Serbia faced Australia in a major competition was back in 2010. At the FIBA Basketball World Cup in Türkiye, Serbia won a group stage game 94-79.
FIBA