Who 'won' the Olympic Draws? A debate among Experts

MIES (Switzerland) - The Draws for the Olympic Basketball Tournaments Paris 2024 held this week have set up some mouthwatering matchups for the men and women.

Our pundits ponder what's going to unfold when the Olympics get underway in late July.

Jeff Taylor is a FIBA writer, columnist and veteran FIBA Media play-by-play commentator who most recently called games at last year's FIBA Basketball World Cup in Manila, and at the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Antwerp.

Mike Taylor, a veteran coach who led Poland to the Quarter-Finals of the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019, worked as a color commentator for FIBA Media at EuroBasket 2022 and at last year's FIBA Basketball World Cup in Manila.

Liz Mills made history as the first woman to lead a team, Kenya, to the AfroBasket and then coached the Morans at the 2021 event in Rwanda. She is a coach in the Basketball Africa League, having held the reins of AS Salé and ABC Fighters. She also recently led Bangui Sporting Club to qualification for the BAL in 2024. 

Mark Clark is a veteran coach and also a long-time commentator at FIBA events, and coach. He was on the mic at the FIBA WOQT in Hungary and before that called games at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 in Jakarta.

Shona Thorburn, a two-time Canada Olympic point guard who is now a coach at French top-flight side Basket Landes, has been a commentator since the FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2017. She was on the mic at the last two FIBA Basketball World Cups for men and women, and also at the FIBA Women's OQT in Hungary.

Carlan Gay, a veteran FIBA commentator who called games at FIBA EuroBasket 2017 and the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019, was the play-by-play voice for the FIBA Women's OQT in Brazil.

The Men

Which is the toughest group?

 

Jeff: It's a tie between Groups A and B. Group A has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada. There is also Australia, who won bronze in Tokyo. Add Luka Doncic and Slovenia (or maybe Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece) from the Piraeus OQT, and Spain from the Valencia OQT, and that's one helluva group! Yet Group B has world champs Germany, France (Hosts + Experience + Wemby = Formidable!) and Japan,  who play fast, play smart, play together and shoot a lot of threes! Add from the OQT in Riga - maybe Brazil or the new darlings of international basketball, Latvia - and you have some serious battles.

World champions Germany and hosts France are in a stacked Group B

Mike: Balanced, competitive groups that will result in excellent matchups and terrific action.  From my view, I see the USA, Canada and Germany as the three favorites but each team will have its challenges.  We could see sleepers emerge from the OQTs with teams like Slovenia, Latvia and Lithuania focused on winning their way to Paris. We will know which group is the toughest once the Olympic Qualifying Tournament's are complete but at first glance, I see the potential of Group C with USA, Serbia and Lithuania winning their way out of the Puerto Rico OQT. If Slovenia and traditional power Spain join Australia and Canada in Group A, that will be fun to watch.

Liz: My main takeaway from the men's draw was how competitive the men's games will be. I believe this will be the most competitive Olympic tournament we have ever seen and I'm looking forward to many tightly contested games and hopefully one or two upsets. Honestly, every group is going to be tough but if I had to pick the group of death, I'd say it is Group A with the expectation that Spain or the Bahamas and Greece or Slovenia will join Australia and Canada in this group. As per my previous predictions, I think this will be Spain and Greece.

Canada may have the best team in a very tough Group A

Mark: Group A could be the most competitive group with every team able to get wins. Group B with a Latvian team on the crest of a wave and being the favorite in their OQT Riga could also see games go either way. Group C has World Cup finalists Serbia and arguably the most exciting team from Africa ever in South Sudan. The men's OQTs are arguably the toughest, most cut-throat tournaments there are. So Group A, with an exciting Canadian team, the Boomers, and potentially two powerhouses of world basketball coming from the OQTs could see every game being a classic encounter so that to me looks like the toughest group.

Shona: This is the Olympics so there is no easy group but I have to say the hosts France must not have been excited when they were drawn in Group B. I believe this is the group of death.

Carlan: The thing I keep coming away from the draw with is there are no cupcakes in the basketball world anymore. Whether it's the FIBA Basketball World Cup or the Olympic Games, year after year you look at the landscape and can truly talk yourself into multiple teams having a chance at making it out of group play. The growth of the game and parity at this level is a welcomed sight to see. I don't think you can go wrong with any group here but I'm going to go with Group A because of the two unknowns. Canada and Australia certainly have the talent to medal, but the two teams that will qualify from the OQTs will likely have momentum coming in the Olympics. Regardless of who those two teams end up being, they'll be more than game-ready having gone through a do-or-die tournament before Paris.

Who will reach the Quarter-Finals?

Jeff: Germany, Serbia, USA, Canada, France, Japan, Slovenia, Spain.

Mike: USA, Canada, Germany will all advance and I believe some surprises from the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments could unfold with a hot team like Latvia and elite players like Luka Doncic and Slovenia. France will have a chip on their shoulder, looking to bounce back from a disappointing World Cup.

Does the return of Nikola Jokic make Serbia the team to beat in Group C?

Liz: USA and Serbia are definitely locks for me coming out of Group C, as are Germany and France in Group B. Group A is tough but I see Canada and Spain finishing in the top two with Greece (assuming they come through the OQT) locking down the third spot. Latvia and Lithuania (assuming they win the Puerto Rico OQT) will then battle for the remaining two spots as the third-placed teams in each of their groups.

Mark: Group A: Canada is the only team I would definitely see qualifying. They showed in the World Cup how good they can be and have a head coach who really understands the group and how to make it work. Until we see who comes in from the Greece and Spain Qualifiers, it's tough to call. Group B: Assuming Latvia qualify, I'd see Latvia Germany and France. Excited to see how Germany grow again as the world champions.  Group C: USA will have a great roster, they will be the team to beat, Serbia should join them, but I'd take South Sudan to break into Quarter-Finals.

 

Shona: Canada, Spain, France, Germany, USA, Serbia... Latvia and Australia. This is so hard to predict, especially considering we still don't know the four of the 12 teams that will participate.

Carlan: I have the USA, Serbia, France, Germany, Canada, and then should they all make it out of the OQTs - Latvia, Spain and Slovenia.

Which favorite will not qualify?

Jeff: Australia. Feels like in Group A there is no margin for error and the Boomers will definitely struggle against Canada, and will have to pull out all stops against countries that have OQT winning momentum. The mere fact that I say Australia will struggle in this group says more about the competitiveness of the group and the Olympic field than the Boomers themselves.

Mike: I believe the favorites are set up for success with this Olympic Draw, but if I had to pick a team that could be at risk, it would be Australia with teams like Slovenia and Spain joining Canada in Group A.

Liz: As a very proud Australian this is difficult to admit but I think Australia has a real possibility of not making it out of the group stage. They had an opportunity to reshuffle after an underwhelming World Cup campaign but chose not to and I think this will significantly impact the team's ability to progress in this tournament, though I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong and for them to progress to the Quarter-Finals.

Are Australia are on the downturn following their 10th place finish at the World Cup?

Mark: From the teams already qualified, I'd see France most at risk. Obviously a lot will depend on who makes the roster but they were poor at the World Cup and the roster will be difficult to balance - the established veterans and the outstanding young talent. That leads me to see them at risk. If Spain qualify, they become a contender but again the early-ish World Cup exit and the performances in the EuroBasket qualifiers again point to a team in transition so they would be at risk. But it is Spain and they normally find a way.

Shona: Slovenia or Greece. Not sure you can considerate them a favorite if we look back on recent medalists at the Olympics and World Cup events, but they will be fan favorites, they have two of the best players in the world representing their countries (Slovenia's Doncic and Greece's Antetokounmpo).

Carlan: I think Australia's best days are behind them. This will be the last ride for the likes of Patty Mills, Joe Ingles and co. They'll need to reload with Josh Giddey and the next generation from here on out.

Who can shock the World?

 

Jeff: I answered that one above, predicting Japan would reach the Quarter-Finals. That would be a shock. I just hope Keisei Tominaga, aka the Japanese Ginobili, buries a crazy shot from mid-court or beyond. (I like the sound of Japanese Ginobili but Tominaga is already known as the Japanese Steph Curry, so we'll go with that. The exciting Nebraska Cornhusker sharpshooter even met Curry while still in high school, and wears the same number and shoes.)

Japan's Tominaga (left) and Yuki Kawamura are young, bold, unafraid and extremely talented.

Mike: I am not sure if it is a shock, but I see Canada as a team set up for a special run this summer. Their experience from the World Cup in Manila combined with their depth of talent can push Canadian basketball to new heights.

Liz: The dark horse of the tournament is Latvia, coming off a fantastic World Cup campaign. Can they continue on this trajectory is the big question.

Mark: South Sudan did shock the world with how they qualified as the African team with the highest finish at the World Cup. They were 17th in the 32-team field. They now expect to compete and there is such a high ceiling on their potential that this Olympics could see them make the Quarter-Finals and possibly go further. If it is going to happen at a world level, why not this Olympics?

It's not a good idea to look past high-flying South Sudan, who are making their Olympic bow

Shona: Canada. This will probably be the BEST team Canada has ever put together at an Olympics. Riding high off a bronze medal finish at last year's World Cup, plus a few key players committing to don the RED & WHITE, and let's not forget what a tremendous job coach Fernandez has done, I can't see a reason why they shouldn't shock the world.

Carlan: I said it back in December, I'll say it again. If the Bahamas can make it out of the OQTs they'll have a chance to open some eyes on the Olympic stage.

The Women

Which is the toughest group?

 

Jeff: Group C. You have a dominant USA, yet there is also Belgium - the team that nearly beat them at the Antwerp WOQT. The Cats win while making the best passes and cuts and three-pointers that you could ever hope to see. The latest installment of USA v Belgium will be special. Then there is Japan, who run teams to death and can beat any team if it's making three-balls. And there is also Germany, who have improved depth from last year with the Sabally sisters on board. I love how high IQ Leonie "worth the price of admission" Fiebich lets the game come to her and doesn't force it.

The world craves another USA v Belgium showdown and it'll get it in Group C

Mike: The women's game has never been stronger or more competitive. Group B shapes up as extremely competitive with Australia (FIBA World Ranking Women, presented by Nike No. 3), Canada (No. 5) and France (No. 7) while Nigeria rounds out the group with at No. 12.  One can argue Group A is just as competitive with China (No. 2), Spain (No. 4), Serbia (No. 10) and Puerto Rico (No.11) will battle it out for the right to advance.

Liz: Each group has some clear favorites but what is great to see is how competitive each group has the potential to be. Group A for me is the group of death. Three of the teams rank in the top 10 and Puerto Rico are number 11 in the FIBA World Ranking Women. Each team also has experience at this level so it will be interesting to see the final ranking of each team after the group phase.

Mark: Group C looks so tough. Japan are so fun to watch and have the Olympic experience after Tokyo. The USA are so talented top to bottom and find the way to win as they demonstrated in their win in Belgium. Belgium keep demonstrating that they are a contender on the world stage and Germany take huge steps forward in every tournament. If Germany get more output at the PG spot, they can play with the other three teams. It looks like a group where every game counts and none of the other eight teams would swap for a spot in this group.

After reaching the Gold Medal Game in Tokyo, Japan are looking for another podium finish

Shona: Group C has to be the group of death!

Carlan: Belgium is going to have their shot again! After that thrilling buzzer-beating finish in the OQTs, Belgium will have a chance to prove to the world they can hang with the Americans. They came seconds away from forcing overtime, now can they complete the upset? Group C on paper is the toughest because each team presents a different style to prep for. We know what Team USA brings to the table. Japan will try to run you out of the gym. Germany can be physical, and Belgium isn't solely dependent on Emma Meesseman.

 

Who will reach the Quarter-Finals?

Jeff: USA, Belgium, China, France and Australia are locks, and then I'll guess that Spain, Canada and Germany will join them.

Liz: From Group A I see China and Spain reaching the Quarter-Finals. Australia, France and Canada will join them from Group B. I also predict three teams coming out of Group C - USA, Belgium and Japan.

Might Lauren Jackson be back with Australia by popular demand?

Mark: Group A - China, Spain, Serbia; Group B - France Australia; Group C USA, Japan, Germany.

Shona: China, Spain, France Australia, USA, Belgium, Canada and Japan.

Carlan: I have the USA, Belgium, Australia, France, Spain, China, Serbia and Japan making it out of the group stage.

Which favorite will not qualify?

Jeff: Japan. I love their style of play but they're in a group of death and Belgium will be ready for them, the USA will be the USA and Germany will see that game as their ticket to the Quarter-Finals.

Mike: If a favorite does not qualify, I believe it will be from Group A or Group B for the simple fact of how competitive those groups will be. Teams like France, Serbia and Puerto Rico could easily upset pre-tournament higher-ranked teams.

Liz: I think on the women's side all the favorites will qualify for the Quarter-Finals, it's just a matter of which teams will slide into those final two Quarter-Final positions from those third ranked teams in each group. I see this as a battle between Serbia, Canada and Japan.

Mark: I think Belgium are at risk. It will take a huge performance by Germany but they could eliminate the EuroBasket Women 2023 champions. Canada looked to have dropped their level in the OQT. They could struggle against a talented Nigerian roster and not have the fire power to compete with France and Australia.

Shona: I think Serbia is still going through a building process, they watched Germany beat Brazil at the WOQTs to qualify and they have been dealing with some injuries recently.

Credit to Serbia for reaching the Olympics, but how far can they go?

Carlan: I don't think Canada will qualify for the knockout stage. They were lucky to make the Olympics in the first place after backing in at the OQTs. It's a tough field, and someone will miss out — I see it being them.

Who can shock the world?

Jeff: If any team beats the USA, that for me is a shock. USA have won every Olympic gold dating back to the 1996 Atlanta Games. And the only team that has the mental strength and belief that they can beat the USA is Belgium.

Liz: Nigeria is my X-Factor team. Under the leadership of Coach Rena Wakama they continue to get better every tournament. With the right support from the Nigerian federation and government they could put together a very talented roster that could potentially cause a number of upsets.

Nigeria will be underdogs yet no one should take them lightly

Mike:  Belgium, with momentum from their EuroBasket championship. 

Mark: Nigeria could upset Canada, If they do that then a place in the Quarter-Finals could be within touching distance 

Shona: If France played like they did in China at the WOQT we should see them on the podium. I also think Germany could be a dark horse to make some noise.

Carlan: I don't know if it's a shock, but the Opals are still a global power. Sandy Brondello has a tight-knit unit that should medal and I think will be the greatest threat to the USA's chance at gold.

 

The Experts opinions are entirely subjective and are in no way an official FIBA statement. All comments are purely those of the authors.

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