LILLE (France) - The hosts of the Olympics always face a lot of pressure, but as Victor Wembanyama and his teammates put on the weight of a nation on their backs, they will also have to battle the reigning world champs.
France and Germany are in Group B of the Paris 2024 Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament, alongside Brazil and Japan, who will wait patiently for any mistake to squeeze into the next round.
The Favorite: Germany
When we had Germany at #2 in the Power Rankings before the last FIBA Basketball World Cup, there were a lot of raised eyebrows and pointed fingers. Truth be told, putting them at two was a mistake.
Because they are #1.
Dennis Schroder and Germany won the World Cup last summer, their first such trophy, and a confirmation that they are now the team to beat. Even during the preparation camp, they looked like they were playing at half speed and still eased through in most of the games.
The one they lost, they actually looked the best. Facing the United States, it took a LeBron James superhero effort to see off Germany, giving us more evidence that coach Gordon Herbert created a monster of a team.
That's why they are the ones considered the group favorites here, even though France will have some 27,000 fans behind them in the Pierre Mauroy Stadium.
But maybe that turns into an advantage for the Wagner brothers and others. They love spoiling parties, so winning Group B looks like a perfect job for Die Mannschaft.
The Underdog: Japan
They were unlucky with the draw, knowing they have to defeat either the hosts or the world champs to advance to the Quarter-Finals no matter what happens in the other groups.
To make it even tougher, they got Brazil from the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament 2024 Latvia, the only non-host winning the OQTs, and a team which will bother Japan a lot, thanks to their ability to slow down the game completely.
Japan love running, they love shooting, and they move the ball around so fast, doing it all with smiles on their faces, because that's what Tom Hovasse's basketball is all about.
The good thing for Japan is that their players have the experience of playing the Olympics from 2021. The bad thing is that they haven't won an Olympic game since 1976.
The Pivotal Game: France v Brazil
The first day of action, the first time the hosts get to see the atmosphere in the Pierre Mauroy Stadium. And the first chance for Brazil to do what they did in their last official game: upset a host in front of their loud fans.
Brazil closed out the FIBA OQT in Latvia with a stunning win over the hosts, preventing them from reaching the Olympics. Now, they get to play a similar game against France, and there will be loads of mind games, for sure, trying to put France under even more pressure at home.
The pure Xs and Os of the matchup will also be interesting. Brazil do a lot of damage with their small-ball lineups, but France have so much firepower in the frontcourt, not just with Wemby and Rudy Gobert, but also with Guerschon Yabusele and Mathias Lessort.
France love playing drop coverage on the defensive end, but Brazil have arguably the best decision maker from the midrange in international basketball, the 41-year-old Marcelinho Huertas.
The two concepts are completely different for coaches Vincent Collet and Aco Petrovic, whoever wins the chess game there will go on to have better chances and more confidence against Japan and Germany, for sure.
The Open Question: Who steps up for France?
The frontcourt is not a problem for France, but they will need something from their guards, too. Evan Fournier usually carried all the load, now he's coming off a turbulent NBA season which saw him appear in just 32 games for the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons.
Nando de Colo also has a history of great decision making for France, however he's now a 37-year-old player. Frank Ntilikina played just five games for the Charlotte Hornets last season, last one being in February, while Matthew Strazel is still a 21-year-old.
The French backcourt is coming into this event in a shaky situation, far from ideal. The questions is hence who will step up and provide the scoring and distributing punch from the outside, who will be their man to get a 20-point, 10-assist double-double if needed?
And it will be needed in such a competitive field, sooner or later.
More?
Don't forget to check the Team Profiles for: France, Germany, Brazil and Japan.
FIBA