MIES (Switzerland) - The games at the four FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments have been fast, furious and fun - at least for the winners.
For those national teams that did not survive the group phase, there is frustration and heartbreak. Better luck next time!
Which teams and players have impressed and which ones are going to be prevailing in the OQTs to reach the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024?
We asked our experts.
Jeff Taylor is a FIBA writer, columnist and veteran FIBA Media play-by-play commentator who is on the mic at the OQT in Piraeus.
Mike Taylor, a veteran coach who led Poland to the Quarter-Finals of the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019, worked as a color commentator for FIBA Media at EuroBasket 2022 and at last year's FIBA Basketball World Cup in Manila.
Liz Mills made history as the first woman to lead a team, Kenya, to the AfroBasket and then coached the Morans at the 2021 event in Rwanda. She has held the reins of AS Salé and ABC Fighters in the Basketball Africa League, and led Bangui Sporting Club to qualification for the BAL in 2023.
Mark Clark is a veteran coach and also a long-time commentator at FIBA events who is calling games at the OQT in Riga.
Shona Thorburn, a two-time Canada Olympic point guard who is now a coach at French top-flight side Basket Landes, in commentating at the OQT in Valencia.
Carlan Gay, a veteran FIBA commentator, is on the mic and doing play by play at the OQT in San Juan.
Biggest surprise?
Which national teams have been the biggest surprises at the OQTs?
Liz: Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire have exceeded expectations. Cameroon came through the Olympic pre-qualification tournament and have now reached for the Semi-Finals. They have the support of the whole African continent behind them as they seek to upset Latvia. Whilst Côte d'Ivoire didn't come away with any wins, they pushed Lithuania, a European powerhouse, in the final seconds of the game and were right in the game to the end against Mexico. They've got a great young core group that will be very exciting to watch over the next couple of years.
Carlan: How about the Philippines, are you kidding me?! Justin Brownlee has been terrific and coach Tim Cone has the entire team believing it truly belongs. Two wins from the Olympics - can you imagine the scenes back home if they can pull it off?
Shona: Lebanon! They played an inspirational game against Angola in a must win to advance to the Semi-Finals. Omari Spellman looks like he is at the top of his game and up-and-coming Khayat is a force to be reckoned with. Without FIBA Asia Cup 2022 MVP Wael Arakji, and captain Saoud dealing with an injury and yet to play, I think a lot of people would have written them off.
Mike: The Philippines. Their 89-80 win over a Latvia team that's No. 6 in the FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE, in Riga, was the first Gilas win over a European nation in an official FIBA game since 1960. They followed up their upset win with a Semi-Final clinching 98-96 loss to Georgia. Justin Brownlee (27 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game and 44% from three) has led a solid team effort. I'm absolutely thrilled to see the Gilas success because of how much the country loves basketball.
Mark: Here in Latvia, the Philippines. The level of their performances has been so consistent across the whole game and their mentality has been so strong. They trailed against Georgia after their upset win over Latvia, lost Kai Sotto but got back in the game and the Semi-Finals qualification slot. In Brownlee, they have a genuine star. Great coaching performance by Tim Cone and for the purists, they are running the Triangle Offense.
In Puerto Rico, the hosts are playing well with a big win over Italy and the possibility of qualifying in front of the home fans.
Jeff: I'm still shaking with excitement and disbelief after the Philippines' upset of Latvia in Riga. Gilas haven't been great in recent years and I had low expectations for them. This national team means a lot to the people of that country so more than anything, I'm happy for them. I'm also hugely impressed by Cameroon, who came through the FIBA Olympic Pre-Qualifying Tournament just to make it. They're in the Semi-Finals in Riga!
Best Player?
Choose the best player of an OQT, or all four, after the Group Phase.
Carlan: I mentioned it when talking about the Philippines but Justin Brownlee has been special in Riga. Deandre Ayton has done a great job on both ends of the floor anchoring the Bahamas in Valencia. Luka Doncic and Ivica Zubac have played well in Greece but I give the nod to Giannis Antetokounmpo. In Puerto Rico, Domantas Sabonis bounced back from a tough outing in game one to help sluggish Lithuania past a hungry Côte d'Ivoire.
Jeff: In Valencia, it's Alex Madsen of Finland. His fourth-quarter rescue act in the win over Poland got the Susijengi into the Semi-Finals. In Piraeus, Shea Ili was an MVP. New Zealand didn't advance after all three teams won once and lost once, but Ili was terrific in both games. In Riga, it's Brownlee of Gilas, which makes one wonder if he might have been a better fit for the team at the World Cup. And in San Juan, Jose "Grand Theft" Alvarado.
Mark: Riga - Justin Brownlee, Philippines; Puerto Rico - Paul Stoll, Mexico; Valencia, I've not seen enough games; Greece - Ivica Zubac, Croatia.
Shona: In the Valencia OQT, Santi Aldama. He's playing on another level, averaging 20.5 points per game while shooting 79% from 2-point range. And he isn't just scoring. He's pulling down 8.5 rebounds a game for Spain. TISSOT MVP candidate!!!
Liz: Given that Giannis (Antetokounmpo) only played one game and Luka's defense is an area of major concern, in Piraeus, I'm going with Ivica Zubac, who has anchored his Croatia team on both ends of the floor; Justin Brownlee from the Philippines is the MVP in Latvia, averaging almost a triple-double; The games in Puerto Rico have been highly competitive and for each team there has been a different player stepping up and therefore there has not been a standout MVP for this tournament. In Spain, Buddy Hield (Bahamas) has been the standout performer in the group, showcasing his skills on both ends of the floor.
Mike: The clear MVP in Piraeus is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Before his DNP in Greece’s 93-71 win over Egypt, he dominated in the team’s 109-82 win over the Dominican Republic, scoring 32 points on a perfect 11-11 from the floor and 1-1 from deep while adding 9 of 13 free throws. My MVP in Riga was also an easy choice - Justin Brownlee of Gilas. He ranks first in scoring, second in rebounding and first in assists in the Baltic OQT. After 26 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists in an historic win over Latvia, he had 28, 8 and 8 in a semi-clinching 98-96 defeat to Georgia.
In Valencia, my MVP is Buddy Hield of the Bahamas. Buddy opened with a 24-point performance - he was 6 of 12 from 3-point range - v Finland, and then had 17 points and 10 assists in a 90-81 win over Poland. My MVP in San Juan is Puerto Rico point guard Jose Alvarado, who caught fire with 29 points on 7 of 10 3-pointers in their eye-catching win over Italy. The 80-69 win won Group B for the Boricuas and snapped a 13-game losing streak to the Azzurri spanning 60 years.
Rising Stars?
Which "rising stars" do you think have exploded on the global scene at these OQTs?
Shona: VJ Edgecombe (Bahamas) - remember this name because he is going to be a superstar.
Jeff: Valdez Edgecombe Jr! Are you kidding me?! The talent jumps off the charts ... 20 points against Finland and 21 against Poland. He's still 18 years old!
Liz: Valdez Edgecombe Jr from the Bahamas. Playing for a team led by two NBA stars, he has more than held his own and been a major contributor on both ends of the floor.
Carlan: Karim Lopez announced himself on the world stage after his performance against Côte d'Ivoire. Just 17 years old, Lopez played like a veteran senior national team member, coming off the bench to pour in 12 points and finish as +21 in his 27 minutes in a must-win game. This won't be the last you hear of Lopez, who is certainly one of the future faces of Mexican basketball.
Mike: I'm very impressed by Edgecombe. We expected the NBA stars to shine for the Bahamas but Baylor-bound Edgecombe has been the surprise, introducing himself to the basketball world.
Who will win?
The Olympic dream is still alive for 16 countries. Which four will win Semi-Finals and then the Final to join the eight teams - France, Germany, Serbia, Canada, USA, Australia, Japan and South Sudan - in the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament Paris 2024?
Liz:
OQT Greece: Greece.
OQT Latvia: Brazil.
OQT Puerto Rico: Lithuania.
OQT Spain: Spain.
Shona:
OQT Greece: Greece.
OQT Latvia: Brazil.
OQT Puerto Rico: Lithuania.
OQT Spain: Spain.
Jeff:
OQT Greece: Greece.
OQT Latvia: Philippines.
OQT Puerto Rico: Lithuania.
OQT Spain: Spain.
Mark:
OQT Greece: Greece.
OQT Latvia: Latvia.
OQT Puerto Rico: Italy.
OQT Spain: Bahamas.
Carlan:
OQT Greece: Greece.
OQT Latvia: Brazil.
OQT Puerto Rico: Lithuania.
OQT Spain: Bahamas.
Mike:
OQT Greece: Greece.
OQT Latvia: Latvia.
OQT Puerto Rico: Lithuania.
OQT Spain: Spain.
Which team could medal in Paris?
From what you have seen so far, which potential OQT winner (or winners) will have good chances to get to the Olympic podium?
Mark: Greece for me have the best chance of success in Paris. They have a way of playing that can give them success with genuine superstar.
Liz: I don't think any of the teams from the qualifiers will end up on the podium at the Olympics. The podium favorites are still very much Team USA, Serbia, France and current FIBA World Cup champions Germany.
Carlan: In my opinion, five of the eight teams that have already qualified have a great chance of a podium finish. USA, France, Canada, Germany and Serbia should all field very talented rosters and will likely be disappointed leaving Paris without a medal. That makes this question a tough one to answer for me. I haven't seen anything yet that makes me feel like one of the potential OQT winners will be able to ride their momentum to a medal. That could change over the next two days, but I need to see it first. Mike: Greece has been the one team that stands out. While Giannis commands most attention, looking beyond at Greece, we discover tremendous potential. First, the team has an extremely high basketball IQ with two outstanding playmakers in Nick Calathes and Thomas Walkup. The team has demonstrated brilliant ball-movement and Vasilis Spanoulis’ system has this offense looking prolific. No other country has a Giannis and the combination of the Greek Freak and the supercharged offense has me very excited about their chances.
Jeff: Had Slovenia been at their best, they could have challenged for a spot on the podium like in Tokyo but the medalists will consist of three of the teams from this group that have already qualified - USA, France, Germany, Canada and Serbia.
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