SAN JUAN (Puerto Rico) - And then there were two.
Lithuania and Puerto Rico will go head-to-head Sunday night in the Final of the 2024 FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
The matchup between the on-paper favorites and the host country will determine who gets the very last ticket to the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.
Key matchups
Domantas Sabonis and Jose Alvarado are the respective leaders of the national teams, and each of them personifies the identity of the countries they represented.
The Sacramento Kings' star brings size, rebounding and interior scoring to a squad teeming with players boasting plenty of experience at the international level. He's averaging 13.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2 assists across 3 games -- all Lithuanian wins. The challenge of stopping Sabonis might go to George Conditt IV, who has had a solid tournament himself with averages of 12.3 points 5.7 boards per contest.
Alvarado is the polar opposite, a perfect display of speed, defense and outside shooting from the point guard position. The New Orleans Pelicans' guard also brings a fiery personality that blends exquisitely with the boisterous boricua fanbase that has been filling out the Coliseo Jose Miguel Agrelot.
He will be matched up against Rokas Jokubaitis, who had a slow start of the tournament, but stepped up and delivered a fine performance against Italy, especially on the defensive end.
X-factors
Equally important will be the perimeter duel between Marius Grigonis and Tremont Waters.
These two guards have been outstanding throughout the week and both of these countries are undefeated and in the Final in great part thanks to their contributions.
Grigonis leads the OQT in scoring at 20.7 points per game while shooting 58.3 percent from the field and a torrid 50 percent from long distance on 7.3 attempts per contest.
He made six three-pointers and dropped 23 points against Italy on Saturday. He's now had new national team career-highs twice in three games in San Juan.
Tremont Waters was just as clutch for Puerto Rico, scoring 15 of his 24 points against Mexico in the key stretch of the third quarter where the islanders took control of the game.
He's averaging 14.3 points, 6.3 assists and 1.3 steals across 3 games while shooting 46.9 percent from the field.
Stats don't lie
Statistically speaking, Lithuania and Puerto Rico have been the best teams of the tournament, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see them both arriving undefeated to the Final.
The Europeans have the edge in scoring categories, averaging more points (93.7 vs. 92.3) and shooting better percentages from the field (52.1 vs. 49), the arc (36.6 vs. 36.5) and the free throw line (81 vs. 72.9).
On the other hand, Puerto Rico has big advantages in rebounds (43.7 vs. 38.3), blocks (3.3 vs. 1.0) and steals (8.0 vs. 7.0).
Perhaps more importantly, Puerto Rico has allowed just 67.6 points per game versus Lithuania's 80.3.
Past matchups
These teams have faced each other three times in the history of FIBA competitions and Lithuania won all three.
The most recent one was at the 2012 FIBA OQT Quarter-Finals, where the Europeans won 76-72.
The previous occasions were at the 2004 and 1992 Olympic Games.
They said
"They are more dangerous because they’re playing at home with the crowd behind their backs. Of course, they also have pressure because of playing at home." - Kazys Maksvytis, Lithuania head coach
"Puerto Rico lives with the emotions of their fans and they’re super dangerous. Our coaches will do a great job in preparing us for the game." - Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Lithuania power forward
"We know the type of game we have to play (on Sunday). We respect this team, it's one of the best teams in the world. They have great execution on both sides, defense and offense. They're the kind of team that plays 40 minutes the same level. They don't go super high or very down. They stay in the same line and this is dangerous because when you play at the same rhythm for 40 minutes and you don't go up and down, that means you're a very consistent team. We have to care about this." - Nelson Colon, Puerto Rico head coach
"Lithuania is an amazing team. A historic team’s who’s been there before. We know they play very physical, they play hard, they have a deep bench as well and they play together. So for us we want to match their physicality on both ends of the floor and make sure we limit turnovers." - Jordan Howard, Puerto Rico point guard
FIBA