RIGA (Latvia) - Heading into the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament 2024 in Riga, only brave people would have predicted Latvia and Brazil to finish away from first place in their respective groups.
Finishing the first stage on top before getting past underdogs Cameroon and the Philippines respectively in the Semi-Finals, they've set up a mouth-watering last day shootout for the one Paris 2024 ticket on offer.
Key matchup
When thinking about national teams that put their absolute trust in their primary playmakers, it's hard not to talk about Latvia with Arturs Zagars and Brazil with Marcelinho Huertas.
It will surely be a clash of generations, as the 41-year-old icon Huertas was approaching his first professional steps when the Latvian point guard was born.
"He's one of the icons of European basketball. Results, numbers, and awards describe exactly how we are in front of an iconic player, who continues to show his best basketball. An example," Latvia head coach Luca Banchi said about the Brazilian veteran.
Another interesting matchup will be played both in the paint and up in the air.
Bruno Caboclo was an absolute number one factor in the opener against Montenegro and in the Semi-Finals against the Philippines, earning TCL Player of the Game Awards on both occasions.
The versatile and wide Latvian frontcourt will have to deal with the complete Brazilian package. Whether it will be Mareks Mejeris, Rolands Smits, Rodions Kurucs, or even Klavs Cavars, everybody should make an extra effort to contain Brazil's highly dangerous and impactful number 51.
X-Factors
Latvia and Brazil have shared a similar path towards this decisive 40-minute showdown. Both ending up on top of their groups, despite each losing to an underdog team on the way to sealing pole position. They also crossed paths with each other's nightmares on Saturday.
Even before the Semi-Finals, they've shared a tough approach to games, or at least taking Latvia's debut in front of its beloved home crowd against Georgia out of that equation.
To keep on dreaming about a spot in the 12-team Olympic pool in Paris, the hosts must learn from Brazil's previous slow starts and boost their energies from the tip-off to make the most of this trend.
That's obviously going to be an X-Factor for the Brazilian national team as well. They don't want to play with fire by issuing a repeat, especially because the sold-out Arena Riga can inflame pretty fast andcould fuel the hosts into a decisive and compelling early run.
Stats don't lie
Despite displaying a different version of itself with respect to the extraordinary FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023, Latvia is still shining on the court when there is elite ball movement. It's no surprise they lead the competition with 20.0 assists per game.
In contrast, Brazil can shelter itself in isolation possessions, as they're sharing the least assists per game at 16.3 per encounter.
Both teams aren't living the best tournament in terms of shots from beyond the arc, as Brazil with 32.1% is shooting slightly better than Latvia at 30.7%. They're both rebounding similarly, with 39.7 and 38.7 boards per game.
Past matchups
There's only one past matchup between Latvia and Brazil and it happened last year in Indonesia. The Baltic nation took the green-and-gold powerhouse out of the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 Quarter-Finals with a 20-point blowout.
Can Brazil take revenge in Riga, breaking both Latvian hearts and their Olympic hopes in the process?
They said
"It's a different story. Different teams, different rosters, different conditions. We faced Brazil at the end of the first group in Indonesia, two very well-prepared teams with a clear identity. Now we're more in a modality with a very short preparation", Latvia head coach Luca Banchi
"We are a team that always keeps fighting. We're resilient and we never give up. We faced difficulties in all the games we were always able to pull it off. Hopefully, we can be prepared and have a better start to the game", Brazil playmaker Marcelinho Huertas
FIBA