ATHENS (Greece) - Slovenia, New Zealand and Croatia are the three teams locked in Group A of the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Greece. Only two of them will move to the Semi-Finals, where they will face the top two from Group B, where Greece, the Dominican Republic and Egypt await.
The Favorite: Slovenia
Even if Luka Doncic missed out on this summer's action, Slovenia have a tradition of playing major events and being competitive in them, they probably still would've been the favorites to win the group.
With Doncic on board, coach Aleksander Sekulic not only wants to reach the Olympics, but also repeat the run from 2021, when they were one Nic Batum block away from reaching the Final against the United States.
Instead, they finished fourth in Japan. Still, the story of that summer definitely helps them in 2024. They know how to win the OQT, they know how to look at the bigger picture and they understand winning this group would be a major step towards another fruitful summer.
Sky's the limit. Especially now that they've got a guy whose last name Nebo means "sky" in Slovenian...
The Underdog: New Zealand
Given the fact they were up by double digits against both the United States and Greece at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023, the Tall Blacks probably do not consider themselves the underdogs.
However, they haven't made the trip to the Olympics since they were played in Athens, meaning it's been 20 years, while Croatia made the Olympic Quarter-Finals twice in that span, and Slovenia reached the Semi-Finals in 2021.
Coach Pero Cameron surely doesn't mind giving the role of the favorites to both Croatia and Slovenia. Maybe not having a target on their backs makes New Zealand a more relaxed and effective team in Piraeus, Greece.
The Pivotal Game: Croatia v New Zealand
Croatia will not just play against a tough opponent in New Zealand, but they will also have to face adversity in terms of their own physical endurance. That's because Croatia open up group proceedings against Slovenia in a late game on July 2, and have to be back in the arena some 18 hours later to play the Tall Blacks in an early game on July 3.
This could be dangerous given the heavy load that Mario Hezonja and Dario Saric had to carry in Croatia's last preparation game, coach Josip Sesar playing them for more than 32 minutes in their win over Brazil in Opatija, Croatia.
Two such games in less than a day could be problematic for Croatia, especially because New Zealand will arrive fresh to that encounter, and are already known for their physicality.
The Open Question: What's the status of Luka Doncic?
The Slovenian superstar is back once again, but this time around, his NBA season was the longest ever, reaching the NBA Finals with the Dallas Mavericks, and he only joined the Slovenian camp for the last week of preparation.
Of course, Luka Doncic is the only one who knows how much it hurts or how annoying his injuries could get throughout the tournament. But at least he gets a day off between the two group games.
The ultimate goal would be for him to get better physically day by day, potentially getting him to his best for the deciding games over the weekend, and then giving him another two weeks to work on his body before the Olympic Games tip-off.
That is, of course, unless Croatia and New Zealand have something to say about it.
More?
Don't forget to check the Team Profiles for: Slovenia, New Zealand and Croatia.