Three reasons why Japan can claim historic win against China

BEIRUT (Lebanon) - If there had to be a game that could be labelled as "The Game" of this Window 1 of the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Qualifiers, it will be the clash between Japan and China.

The two teams in Group C are set to face each other on February 25 at 14:00 (GMT +9) in Tokyo at the Ariake Coliseum.

 

 

Why is this matchup such a big deal?

First, consider the history of these two teams in the Asia Cup.

Most appearances by a team in FIBA Asia Cup (Min. 20 appearances)

No.	Team	FIBA Asia Cup Appearances
1	Korea	30
2	Japan	29
3	Philippines	28
4	Hong Kong	27
5	India	26
6	Chinese Taipei	25
7	Malaysia	24
8	China	23

There are only eight national teams that have played in at least 20 Asia Cups. Japan and China are two of those teams with Japan having featured in 29 Asia Cups and China featured in 23 Asia Cups. Japan have only missed one Asia Cup (in 1963) while China have not missed an Asia Cup since their first appearance in 1975.

More than merely their presence at the Asia Cup are their winning ways.

China are the all-time leaders in Asia Cup titles won with 16 in total. They are also second all-time in podium finishes, with 19 editions ending as one of the top three teams. Japan are right behind China, ending up on the podium 14 times in total with 2 titles won.

Between the two teams, that's a combined 33 trips to the Asia Cup podium. Only a combination of two teams in one game that involves Korea would have a larger number of combined Asia Cup podium finishes.

Titles won & Podium Finishes in FIBA Asia Cup (Team)

No.	Team	Titles	Podium Finishes
1	China	16	19
2	Philippines	5	10
3	Iran	3	5
4	Korea	2	25
	Japan	2	14
	Australia	2	2

 

Japan's chance at history

Japan are undoubtedly one of Asia's basketball powerhouses. This is reflected in their Asia Cup success as well as their roster of notable stars that have put on the national team jersey.

But one thing they have not been able to do in a FIBA Asia setting or higher at the national team level is defeat China - at least since the 1936 Olympic Games.

Head-to-Head: Japan vs China (FIBA Asia competition or Higher)

No.	Year	Competition	Winning Team	Result
1	2021	FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 Asian Qualifiers	China	106-73
2	2021	FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 Asian Qualifiers	China	79-63
3	2021	FIBA Asia Cup 2022 Qualifiers	China	90-84
4	2021	FIBA Asia CUp 2022 Qualifiers	China	66-57
5	2011	FIBA Asia Cup	China	84-58
6	2005	FIBA Asia Cup	China	86-53
7	2003	FIBA Asia Cup	China	88-60
8	2001	FIBA Asia Cup	China	126-67
9	1995	FIBA Asia Cup	China	73-61
10	1991	FIBA Asia Cup	China	105-62
11	1989	FIBA Asia Cup	China	94-70
12	1987	FIBA Asia Cup	China	85-69
13	1983	FIBA Asia Cup	China	105-79
14	1983	FIBA Asia Cup	China	95-71
15	1981	FIBA Asia Cup	China	71-60
16	1979	FIBA Asia Cup	China	70-68
17	1977	FIBA Asia Cup	China	110-81
18	1975	FIBA Asia Cup	China	80-59
19	1936	Olympic Games	Japan	35-19

 

14 times Japan have faced China in the Asia Cup - with some Asia Cups facing each other twice. Then, in 2021 alone, the two teams clashed for a total of four times in the span of only 6 months at both the Asia Cup Qualifiers and World Cup Qualifiers.

And all of those times, Japan have suffered defeats.

So this time, in Window 1 of the Asia Cup 2025 Qualifiers, is a chance for Japan to finally score that elusive victory.

Three key reasons why

But China have been undefeated against Japan throughout the past 50 years for a reason. They are consistently really, really good. The catch here is that Japan are really, really, REALLY good as well which is why they have hopes of getting this important win.

Here are three reasons why Japan can win this marquee matchup against China in the upcoming days.

1. Optimism is in the air

Head coach Tom Hovasse took over the team reigns of this AKATSUKI JAPAN team in 2021 and coached his first game against China. Japan lost both games by 16 and 33 points.

"Those first two games against China in 2021 were a wake-up call for everyone associated with Japan Basketball. It was obvious that change was necessary," said Hovasse.

From that point on, Japan went on to have a promising run in Asia Cup 2022, which ended in the Quarter-Finals against eventual champs Australia. They then had an even more monumental campaign at the World Cup which was co-hosted in Okinawa, where they finished as the team with the best results in Asia - locking up a spot at Paris 2024.

Therefore, there's a lot of optimism about how far the national team program has come along. It's not only about the exceptional level of individual talents that have been developed, but the overall identity and playing style of the team that feeds off the vibes of "we can take on anyone".

That determination to prove themselves of how far they've come could be essential in fueling a big performance.

"I'm excited for this next game to see how far we have come and what we need to work on. It will be a great test against a very good team."

2. In transition

This is not in reference to Japan's uptempo style of play (which could also play a big part in the outcome of this game), but rather the build of China's current national team.

There is - and has always been - enough talent in China's deep talent pool to form a strong team, which they have done again here ahead of their Window 1 games. Asia Cup champion Zhao Jiwei, with appearances at two World Cups and an Olympic Games, is among one of China's best guards. Abudushalamu Abudurexiti and Hu Mingxuan are top-notch forwards.

But it's more than clear that coach Sasa Djordjevic is also aiming to infuse some youth into the lineup for these upcoming games for China.

"We need to win and at the same time look to the future," said Djordjevic.

That could potentially leave some margins of error of which Japan can take advantage. Whether it's adjusting to defensive rotations or the growing pains of building chemistry, teams that are transitioning between generations will always have gaps to be aware of.

Even then, however, it won't be that easy for Japan. The "newer" player for Team China are no pushovers. Between promising prospects like Cui Yongxi, Yu Jiahao, and the youth national team star Yang Hansen, they young guns will be ready to be a handful for the opposition.

3. Home Sweet Home

Put yourselves in the shoes of one of the players playing in this game. If you are Japan, you're already fueled by the high of confidence and optimism over the past months of the national team. As you step onto the court, the fans that are packed at the Ariake Coliseum roar in your support.

If you are China, especially if you are one of the younger players, imagine the pressure you will experience as those same fans scream in hopes of doing whatever they can to keep you off your game.

That's what came into play when Japan defeated the likes of Finland, Venezuela, and Cape Verde at the Okinawa Arena. Now, it's just a matter of moving that experience to Tokyo.

Will Japan do it?

There are most likely more than only three reasons why Japan can claim a historical win over China. Likewise, there are plenty of reasons why China can extend that win streak further. But we've listed here the key reasons why it can be done as well as why this game matters so much.

When it comes to game time, however, how will the ball roll?
Will Japan make history or will China keep the tradition going?
Who do you think will win?

 

FIBA