Lesson learned from 2015 FIBA Asia Championship draw: teams cannot afford to be complacent!

MANILA (Enzo Flojo's Asia on my Mind) - The official draw for the 2015 FIBA Asia Championship took place over the weekend in Changsha, China and, boy, did it cause quite a stir!

The top four teams from the 2013 FIBA Asia Championship were seeded according to their rankings. Iran (champions) were seeded into Group A, Philippines in Group B, Korea in Group C, and Chinese Taipei in Group D.

It was an "open draw" for the next two rounds and then China, as host country, chose its group in the last round. China chose Group C. The last three spots were then drawn.

Group A: Iran (defending champions), Japan, Malaysia, one South Asian country (probably India).
Group B: Philippines, Palestine, Kuwait, one East Asian country (either Hong Kong or Mongolia).
Group C: Korea, Jordan, Singapore, China (host).
Group D: Chinese Taipei, Lebanon, Qatar, Kazakhstan.

Right off the bat, several things are clear for each group:

1. Iran should easily top Group A. Japan should be competitive with a new naturalized player (either Tommy Brenton or Michael Parker), but they are still tremendous underdogs against the defending champs. Malaysia will probably be the doormat here as India (should they qualify) is favored to advance despite all the internal turmoil they are currently experiencing and despite the fact they still don't have a coach.

2. Group B is the lightest group, with tournament newcomer Palestine having a golden chance to really make an impact and a clear path to the Quarter-Finals. The Philippines is the only team in Group B that has ever finished in the top three of any FIBA Asia Championship, the only team in that group to ever play in the FIBA Basketball World Cup, and the only team in that group to be in the top 40 in the FIBA World Ranking Men. Needless to say, they are the odds-on favorites.

3. It's quite strange that hosts China chose to be a part of Group C, given how both Korea (like India, the Koreans still don't have a coach) and Jordan are top-flight teams. Still, there could be wisdom in that move if the Chinese can escape this group unscathed. One may argue that Korea and Jordan (as long as they are complete and healthy) are the two toughest teams on this side of the bracket outside of China, and if the hosts can sweep this group, they have a really strong shot at finishing as the top seed entering the Quarter-Finals. China always plays much better at home, so I'll pick them to barely top this group with Korea and Jordan finishing 2-3 respectively.

4. Group D is the GROUP OF DEATH! Any of the four teams here is good enough to finish on the podium, if not win the whole thing. Still, when the dust settles, I expect Lebanon to stand atop of the heap. Living legend Fadi El Khatib is in sterling form, and the Cedars have been training for a couple of months now. Chinese Taipei, given their experience and depth, should be favorites to finish behind Lebanon, while Qatar, playing for the first time without icon Yaseen Musa, will fight for the third spot against a youthful Kazakh quintet.

Almost immediately after the draw was announced, a lot of people felt that it was quite lopsided.

And they're right.

It's not just how Group B is really light. Once the second round begins, Group F will be infinitely tougher than Group E.

*The top three teams from Group A will join the top three teams from Group B to form Group E, and the top three teams from Group C will join the top three teams from Group D to form Group F.

By all intents and purposes, it should be a relatively trouble-free path to the Quarter-Finals for Iran, Japan, and the Philippines, but once they get to the Last Eight, they better get themselves ready for a helluva tough grind.

That doesn't necessarily mean they will lose, but it surely means nothing will be easy from that point moving forward.

Just take a moment to appreciate the quality of opponents who will rumble in Group F and fight for only four Quarter-Final spots: Korea, Jordan, China, Chinese Taipei, Lebanon, Qatar, and maybe Kazakhstan. Each of those teams has finished in the top four of the tournament at least once in the past 10 years. Make no mistake, whoever it is who comes out will be good enough to win it all.

For the sake of argument, let's say it's the top four ranked teams who make it from that group. That's China, Korea, Jordan, and Lebanon - all of whom have played in the FIBA Basketball World Cup at least once. Even the top seed from Group E won't have the assurance that they'll get a "low risk" assignment in the Quarter-Finals.

This is the true nature and danger of such a lopsided draw. No matter how well any Group E team does, all that will mean nothing if they lose in the Quarter-Finals. The thing is getting a "light" draw for the preliminary round doesn't significantly make the road to Rio any easier. If anything, this kind of draw actually makes the path to the Olympics a lot trickier.

It's a nightmare dressed up as a daydream. Hellfire masquerading in the trappings of a heavenly blessing.

Winning in the early rounds doesn't matter as much as actually making it to the knockout rounds and playing better there. Underestimating opponents should be the last thing in every player’s mind, and nobody should be underestimating this draw.

Enzo Flojo

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

FIBA takes no responsibility and gives no guarantees, warranties or representations, implied or otherwise, for the content or accuracy of the content and opinion expressed in the above article.