ATHENS (Greece) - In 2012, Venezuela hosted the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament. Russia, Lithuania and Nigeria advanced to the London Olympics.
In 2016, Croatia won the tournament in Italy, France were top of the standings in the Philippines, while Serbia were the only ones winning at home, in Belgrade.
In 2021, all four hosts failed to reach the Olympics. Germany celebrated in Croatia, Italy in Serbia, Czechia in Canada, and Slovenia in Lithuania.
This is why Greece will not just be up against Egypt and the Dominican Republic in Group B. They will be up against the home team curse, too.
The Favorite: Greece
Since Giannis Antetokounmpo joined the national team, it was always a matter of taking full advantage of his unique skill set. Some used him as the primary ball handler, others wanted him as a corner cutter and lob threat, and now, Greece got one of the greatest basketball minds to call the plays for him.
Coach Vassilis Spanoulis surrounded Antetokounmpo with shooters, giving all of them the green light to fire at will. They looked really good during the preparation camp, and Giannis's minutes against the Bahamas were highly effective, minimizing his touches, maximizing his efficiency.
Playing in the Peace and Friendship Stadium - Spanoulis's home during his playing days - Greece will surely have the sixth player in the stands, and facing two non-European teams, they will need to show their ability to adjust to different styles in the group stage.
They feel like they are a lock for the Semi-Finals, and it's hard to disagree with them, given their preparation camp performances so far.
The Underdog: Egypt
They have not been at the Olympics since 1988, and they have not won a game at the Olympics since 1952, but Egypt are slowly but surely putting themselves back on the basketball map.
The rise started with coach Roy Rana leading the program to the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023, where they were close to being the best African team and booking a direct trip to the Olympics, but that ticket ended up in South Sudanese hands.
Rana's long term partner in crime Henrik Rodl is now at the helm of this team, maintaining the same kind of basketball philosophy. This is another big stage for the Egyptian players to show their talents, and reaching the Semi-Finals would be another stepping stone for the future of this basketball nation.
The Pivotal Game: Greece v Dominican Republic
The second game of the group should give us a lot of answers. The Dominican Republic will have played against Egypt by then, and either be in a situation to fight for the top spot ahead of the Semi-Finals, or having to fight for survival.
Greece have the benefit of being fresh for that matchup, and if they come out on top of the Dominican Republic, they will have the doors wide open to win the group and have a somewhat easier Semi-Finals draw.
Rest assured, Greece will not underestimate their opponents. The Dominican Republic national team is not just about the greatness of Karl-Anthony Towns or Al Horford, their entire core has been together for a long time.
In Andres Feliz and Jean Montero, they have two of the most electric guards from the Spanish Liga Endesa, and they are still a team which made the sweet 16 phase in each of the last three editions of the FIBA Basketball World Cup.
When they are clicking, it feels like they are singing and dancing on the court. Which is exactly what Greece's first quarter against the Bahamas looked like before the OQTs.
The Open Question: Relaxed or stressed out?
Of all the groups in all the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments, this one seems to have the biggest disproportion of high and low expectations.
Greece could be stressed out with all the weight on their shoulders, having Giannis Antetokounmpo, playing at home, beating the hosts' curse, being a clear favorite to win the whole thing.
Then on the other end of the seesaw, Egypt and the Dominican Republic have nothing to lose and a lot to gain already in the group stage. Imagine stealing a win. Imagine stealing two, playing carelessly and enjoying the moment.
Imagine being just three wins away from reaching the Olympics, while stunning the likes of Giannis, Luka, Hezonja... Staying relaxed could pave the way to history for Egypt and the Dominican Republic.
More?
Don't forget to check the Team Profiles for: Greece, Dominican Republic and Egypt.
FIBA