Who will win the race in Group I: Montenegro, Latvia or Ukraine?

MUNICH (Germany) - The three-horse race for the last remaining ticket to China in Group I will be the cherry on top of the exciting and unpredictable FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 European Qualifiers, with the fates of Latvia, Montenegro and Ukraine set to intertwine in the last couple of games.

Head-to-head battles between the qualification hopefuls will see the three-way contest go all the way down to the wire, with the top side joining the already qualified table-toppers Spain and Turkey through to first-ever 32-team FIBA World Cup.

Although the Zvezdan Mitrovic-coached Montenegro find themselves in the best position to advance heading into the sixth and final window having defeated both of their rivals once already, the race is too close to call with Latvia and Ukraine lurking in the outside lane.

GROUP I

Gameday 11 (Friday, February 22)

Turkey v Slovenia  Ukraine v Montenegro (First game: Montenegro +6, 90-84) Latvia v Spain  [/unordered]

Gameday 12 (Monday, February 25)

Spain v Turkey  Montenegro v Latvia (First game: Montenegro +9, 84-75) Slovenia v Ukraine  [/unordered]

Qualified: Spain, Turkey
 

Can still qualify:

Montenegro would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but one could suffice depending on other results if they win the tie-breakers against Latvia, Ukraine and Turkey, though the latter might not necessarily come into play.

Latvia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but a win against Montenegro could suffice depending on other results if they win the tie-breaker against Montenegro. Depending on other results, Latvia can also tie with Montenegro and Turkey for 2nd, 3rd and 4th spot and qualify if they win against Montenegro by 9 points.

Ukraine would clinch a spot in the World Cup if they win both of their games and capture the tie-breaker against Montenegro, providing that Latvia also lose both of their games and Turkey win at least one of theirs.

Can no longer qualify: Slovenia

 

What do the experts think?

Simas Baranauskas and Igor Curkovic have closely followed the qualification process ever since the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 European Pre-Qualifiers, keeping you close to the action with the Live Blog. David Hein handed you features from all over Europe and Jeff Taylor is the voice behind international basketball, calling games for LiveBasketball.tv.

Simas Baranauskas: It may well be my Baltic bias at work, but I see Latvia edging out Montenegro and Ukraine for the last remaining ticket to the World Cup in Group I. They might not be as well positioned to advance to the Final Round as Montenegro entering the February window, but I think the likes of Janis Timma, Janis Strelnieks, Dairis Bertans, Rolands Smits, Anzejs Pasecniks and Zanis Peiners should provide enough firepower for coach Arnis Vecvagars to emerge victorious in Podgorica, even if booking a ticket to China required clinching the head-to-head tie-breaker against Montenegro. 

Igor Curkovic: Latvia. Even though they have to go to Montenegro on the very last day, I don't think that playing away will be all that complicated since Montenegro have to go on the road too, visiting Ukraine on Friday. And sometimes, in such a big game as that Montenegro v Latvia matchup seems to be, having the packed arena at home can easily turn into pressure for the hosts. That's where Latvia's ice-coldness comes into play, they will be prepared to keep the Montenegro faithful silent. Or at least not THAT loud, which could also help.

David Hein: While it would be great to maybe see Kristaps Porzingis playing for Latvia at China 2019, the Latvians will not make it through Group I as it will be Montenegro that joins Spain and Turkey. Montenegro first off have the easier matchup in the first half of the window, though heading to Kiev and facing Ukraine will not be easy. The Latvians meanwhile host a Spain team that still is aiming to lock up first place in the group and will not want to go into the final game at home against Turkey needing a victory. And then the big showdown between Latvia and Montenegro will go down in Podgorica, where the Moraca will be rocking knowing their heroes are close to securing their first ever trip to the World Cup. Montenegro also have a 9-point victory over Latvia in hand in case of a tiebreaker. 

Jeff Taylor: This is the group that will have ALL OF US glued to our television sets, or our computer screens, for the Qualifiers. It's fascinating and confusing. It's impossible to pick, but because we have to, I'll go with Montenegro. Their 90-84 triumph over Ukraine on September 17, in Niksic, will be remembered as one of the top games in the European Qualifiers. I still get chills thinking about that crowd and that dynamic duo, Nikola Ivanovic and Bojan Dubljevic. Will 50 percent of that terrific twosome be enough the second time at Ukraine with Montenegro's Superman, Ivanovic, hurt and unavailable. I'm not convinced Latvia will win at home against Spain in their first game, either. Then we have the expected presence of Janis Timma, Janis Strelnieks and Dairis Bertans, a tantalizing and very talented trio that won't face Spain, for the game at Montenegro. If the teams enter that showdown on the backs of wins, Latvia would still need to win by 9 points. Interestingly, Latvia coach Arnis Vecvagars said he believes his team will have learned more from the first meeting against Montenegro than the Balkan side. I don't buy that. I like Zvezdan Mitrovic, having seen him work his magic for Monaco Basket in the first couple of seasons in the Basketball Champions League and, of course, with Montenegro. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Ukraine will win at home against Montenegro and then prevail at Slovenia, giving them a chance to finish third. I'm picking Montenegro.

FIBA