FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 Power Rankings: Volume III, eve of the battle

MIES (Switzerland) - The FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 is approaching quickly and it's time for another update of the Power Rankings with the third edition of the summer. You can read the first volume here, and the second one here.

The Power Rankings are in no way an official ranking system but do represent the assessment from the author for each team of finishing high or low at the summit in the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia, which tips off on August 25.

This third volume of the Rankings should be considered as an overview with updated rosters and first preparation games behind us.

 

 

#32 Cote d'Ivoire (=)

Number of World Cup appearances: 5th appearance
Best result: 13th in 1982 and 1986
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 42nd

They got a pair of wins over Guinea and followed it up with a win over Lebanon. But their 23-point defeat to the Philippines certainly showed they are a long way from their goal, especially with their group rivals Spain and Brazil looking impressive during the entire summer.

With that in mind, and Cote d'Ivoire's all-time 1-19 record at the World Cup, it's easy to consider them the underdogs here. Probably the biggest underdogs of the entire event. 

#31 Cape Verde (=)

Number of World Cup appearances: 1st appearance
Best result: 1st appearance
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 64th

In case you're wondering what Walter Edy Tavares' 2.21m (7ft 3in) frame looks like among ordinary, non-basketball-player crowd.

 Cape Verde lost their only two friendlies, by 20 against China and by 27 points against Turkey early August. It is difficult to evaluate the momentum of the squad but the motivation will be there.

#30 Iran (=)

Number of World Cup appearances: 4th appearance
Best result: 19th in 2010
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 22nd

Two wins during the training camp for Iran, one of them being an overtime triumph against Venezuela just before the World Cup, the other an eight-point win over Jordan back in Georgia.

Those two wins are good enough to make them confident when it comes to their duel with Cote d'Ivoire, but they also have Spain and Brazil in their group, meaning it's an uphill battle to get to the sweet 16. This is their fourth consecutive World Cup, the closest they got to top 16 was in 2010, when they finished 19th.

#29 Angola (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 9th appearance
Best result: 9th in 2006
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 41st

Just a single win for Angola all summer long, and it happened back in July, when they out-defended Venezuela in a 66-61 game. Angola played Mexico, Jordan, Portugal and Japan since, losing all four of those games.

They looked relaxed upon arrival to the Philippines, but having to face Italy on Day 1, then the hosts, and finally Karl-Anthony Towns' Dominican Republic - they are going to need to do more than just look relaxed. 

#28 Lebanon (+1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 4th appearance
Best result: 16th in 2002
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 43rd

We had a media survey before the World Cup, and one of the questions for the accredited media members was which is the group of death at this event.

The winner of that one was Group H, which probably explains the Lebanese situation better than this paragraph could. Facing France, Canada and Latvia sounds like too tough of a task at this point.

#27 Egypt (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 7th appearance
Best result: 5th in 1950
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 55th 

The win over Georgia in late July brought up a lot of positives for Egypt, but they weren't able to build on it, at least not from the final result perspective of their training camp.

Up against Mexico, Montenegro and Lithuania in Group D, Egypt's recent run puts them in a position of a major underdog in the group, especially when you consider their last World Cup win happened in Canada 29 years ago.

#26 Japan (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 6th appearance
Best result: 11th in 1967
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 36th

It was always going to be a question of who takes the scoring load with Rui Hachimura not playing for the hosts. The answer seems to be Keisei Tominaga, as the 22-year-old put up back-to-back 20-point games against Angola and France, showing the world why the Nebraska Cornhuskers love giving the ball to him.

Still, even with his high-scoring potential and the presence of Yuta Watanabe, Japan are in a group with three of the best looking teams of the summer in Australia, Germany and Finland. 

 

#25 Venezuela (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 5th appearance
Best result: 11th in 1990
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 17th

Good news? This could be the start of something special for years to come for Venezuela, who are proud to arrive to the summit with seven U23 players.

Bad news? These guys have to go up against Luka Doncic and Slovenia, up against one of the most experienced European squads in Georgia, and they also have Cape Verde in there with excitement of becoming the smallest nation to play the World Cup.

Even worse news? They lost all nine of their friendly games this summer.  

#24 Jordan (+3)

Number of World Cup appearances: 3rd appearance
Best result: 23rd in 2010
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 33rd

A big decision was made this summer, with Dar Tucker not being on the list, and Jordan opting for Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as their naturalized player. He can tell them a thing or two about the Filipino passion for basketball, having signed with the TNT Tropang Giga in February, and his athleticism should help Jordan.

Will it be enough to upset USA, Greece and New Zealand? Remains to be seen. Wins over Angola, Mexico and Venezuela should give them some confidence heading into the event.

#23 Puerto Rico (-5)

Number of World Cup appearances: 15th appearance
Best result: 4th in 1990
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 20th

Since we last spoke: -33 v Italy, -35 v Serbia, -13 v Lithuania, -12 v Latvia. Hence the five position drop compared to the last Power Rankings. But hey, if there's one team whose preparation games results should not be in consideration, it's these guys.

Remember, four years ago they lost to Croatia's U20 team just before the World Cup...and then stunned everybody by making the Second Round at the event. 

#22 South Sudan (+3)

Number of World Cup appearances: 1st appearance
Best result: 1st appearance
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 62nd

Sometimes, a defeat shows so many positives, and it happened with South Sudan in their game against Brazil. If you look at the final score, you could say "they lost by 10, what are we talking about?"

But in reality, they were up until the final 10 minutes, and with Wenyen Gabriel, Nuni Omot and Carlik Jones all scoring in double digits, it was a fine indicator of what this team can do against a serious contender. The only reason why they aren't higher on this list is the fact they are still rookies on this level. 

#21 China (-2)

Number of World Cup appearances: 10th appearance
Best result: 8th in 1994
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 27th

China will be looking at their rear-view mirror all the time, even in these Power Rankings, because the team right behind them is also their group rival. With South Sudan rising in confidence and China losing three of their last four tune-up games, we could have a tense battle behind Serbia's back in this group.

These guys are more experienced, sure, but the last time China made it to the Round of 16 was back in 2010. 

#20 New Zealand (-3)

Number of World Cup appearances: 7th appearance
Best result: 4th in 2002
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 26th

Three straight defeats for New Zealand just before the World Cup - it doesn't sound all too good for coach Pero Cameron. That's why they dropped three places, one for each defeat, and it would be a major upset if they bounced back and stopped the losing streak in their first game of the World Cup.

Because they've got the United States waiting for them. But, against Greece and Jordan, they'll have to go all-in and try to sneak into the Second Round. 

#19 Philippines (+1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 7th appearance
Best result: 3rd in 1954
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 40th

The hosts are beyond excited with the event fast approaching. They will chase the attendance record on Day 1, opening up the program in the gigantic Philippine Arena, which has the unreal capacity of 55,000.

Now imagine that, Jordan Clarkson up against Karl-Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic in front of tens of thousands of fans - that's exactly the kind of environment which could propel the Philippines towards a win there.

They feed on such atmospheres and the optimism around here. One win could turn to two, two to three, all of a sudden you could be in the next round or the Quarter-Finals. It could happen. But not if they allow 100+ like in their recent friendly against Montenegro.

 

#18 Georgia (+5)

Number of World Cup appearances: 1st appearance
Best result: 1st appearance
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 32nd

The first couple of weeks were no good. That much was clear. The last couple of weeks were way better, with Georgia picking up wins over Jordan, Montenegro and Iran while getting three different players to lead the scoring, with Sandro Mamukelashvili, Goga Bitadze and Giorgi Shermadini.

Sure, they didn't beat USA, Spain and France, but still, they will feel as favorites against Cape Verde and Venezuela. Two wins there, and off they go to the Round of 16 on their debut.

#17 Montenegro (+4)

Number of World Cup appearances: 2nd appearance
Best result: 25th in 2019
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 18th

There was something different about Montenegro as they arrived in Manila. The vibe wasn't about just being here, the vibe was about feeling like they are the favorites to advance, like they've been through enough events and Qualifiers' thrillers to feel like a family, to feel like Montenegro could be among the 16 best teams in the world.

Imagine that, a country with a population of 600,000 having a legit feeling they belong in the Second Round. The very first game will probably be an indicator how far they could go, because... 

#16 Mexico (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 6th appearance
Best result: 8th in 1967
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 31st

...that first day of competition will see Montenegro facing Mexico! It's the first game of the first day in the Mall of Asia arena, and Mexico love putting early dents into bigger teams - bigger in terms of centimeters and inches.

Mexico know how to play against big teams, no better reference than the fact they've beaten the USA three times over the last five years, and if they make it a run-and-gun game, they'll have the doors wide open to charge towards the victory and the Second Round. They've scored north of 70 in each of their 11 tune-up games, north of 80 in six of those, too. Run away with Mexico!

#15 Greece (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 9th appearance
Best result: 2nd in 2006
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 9th

Coach Dimitris Itoudis said Greece had to change their identity, to become a defensive force because they no longer have their leader Giannis Antetokounmpo. With guys like Thomas Walkup, Thanasis Antetokounmpo and Kostas Papanikolaou, that identity switch should go by smoothly, but still. It's not just Giannis.

They are also missing Kostas Sloukas, Nick Calathes, Tyler Dorsey... That's why they aren't a top 10 team here, even though everybody says defense wins championships. Four straight defeats to close out their preparation games schedule, doubts are here. 

#14 Latvia (+2)

Number of World Cup appearances: 1st appearance
Best result: 1st appearance
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 29th

On one hand, Kristaps Porzingis is not here and will not play because of his injury. On the other hand, Latvia are still good, way better than most people expect them to be, having won games against Sweden, Georgia, Dominican Republic, Finland and Puerto Rico this summer.

The trouble is, they are in the group of death with France and Canada, meaning they will have to stun either the team that finished third in 2019, second at the Olympics in 2021 and second at the FIBA EuroBasket 2022; or the team that reached the Semi-Finals at the last two Olympics, at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 and won back-to-back gold medals in FIBA Asia Cup.

Do they have it in them? Do they?

#13 Lithuania (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 6th appearance
Best result: 3rd in 2010
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 8th

Sure, wins over Finland and Puerto Rico sound nice, sure. But... Back-to-back defeats to France were closer to real picture for Lithuania, if they want to go all the way at this tournament.

They are the group favorites, and they will like their chances against teams like Greece, New Zealand or Jordan if/when they make the Second Round, their drop of one place is just because another team was climbing up.

#12 Finland (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 2nd appearance
Best result: 22nd in 2014
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 24th

Same as Lithuania, their drop has nothing to do with them, more to do with another team climbing. Finland haven't been active recently when it comes to games, the last one was a heavy defeat to Latvia on August 16 - also a game that showed them how far from ideal form they are without Lauri Markkanen.

It was nothing serious, just resting his body after suffering a few hits in days prior to that game, but now he's at 100 percent, ready to hit copy on his FIBA EuroBasket 2022 performance and paste to Japan 2023. 

#11 Brazil (+2)

Number of World Cup appearances: 19th appearance
Best result: winners in 1959 and 1963
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 13th

That win over Australia in Australia was the moment it all clicked for Brazil, when they realized they could be a legit contender out here. Hey, if you're capable of scoring 90 points against the Boomers and do so on the road, you're a legit contender.

Brazil would've been a top 10 team, but they suffered a close call defeat to Serbia on a late Nikola Jovic three-pointer so we had to hold them back a bit. Going back-and-forth with Serbia, just another piece of evidence that Brazil are for real. 

#10 Dominican Republic (=)

Number of World Cup appearances: 4th appearance
Best result: 12th in 1978
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 23rd

The whole thing is going to be about Karl-Anthony Towns going crazy in this kind of environment, but we called it even when he wasn't with the team. The Dominican Republic could be in the Quarter-Finals with a bit of luck.

They have defeated Canada, they went neck and neck with Spain in Spain, they've been to the Round of 16 of the World Cup in 2019 already. Don't underestimate these guys, we did so with the Power Rankings four years ago and we're still searching for redemption because that was a take as cold as the air conditioning in Manila indoors. 

#9 Serbia (=)

Number of World Cup appearances: 7th appearance
Best result: winners in 1998, 2002 (as FR Yugoslavia)
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 6th

Here's a take not so hot. Serbia will be the first team to book a trip to the Quarter-Finals. They lost a single game this summer, by a single point, to their arch-nemesis Italy, but everything else was picture perfect for these guys. A win against Greece, a blowout win over Puerto Rico, a blowout win over China, a clutch win over Brazil.

All done with no blinding lights from being center stage, all done while keeping a low profile and not getting as many headlines as four years ago. First to Quarter-Finals, you've read it here first. 

#8 Slovenia (-4)

Number of World Cup appearances: 4th appearance
Best result: 7th in 2014
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 7th

Should we be worried about Slovenia's -20 against Spain and -30 against USA? Probably not. But then again, they lost an important piece in Vlatko Cancar, meaning they will be without 12 points per game, his averages at both the FIBA EuroBasket 2022 and the Olympics in 2021.

Plus a lot of non-measurable things he brought to the team. Compared to that 2021 Olympics Semi-Final squad, coach Aleksander Sekulic still has Nikolic, Prepelic, Tobey, Blazic, Hrovat, Dimec, Z. Dragic, Cebasek and Doncic, they should have enough firepower to be in the Quarter-Finals.

#7 Italy (+1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 10th appearance
Best result: 4th in 1970 and 1978
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 10th

Wait up. They've defeated Turkey. They've defeated China. Defeated Serbia. Defeated Greece. Puerto Rico. Brazil. New Zealand. Wait up! Italy have maintained a perfect record throughout their summer so far, and are headed to this World Cup with so much confidence we can start re-opening the history books.

And you know what's written in there? The fact that Italy last made the Semi-Finals of the FIBA Basketball World Cup back in 1978. Which was also held - that's right, you've guessed it - in the Philippines, in the same Araneta arena where they will play two of their three Group A games. History repeating? Seems legit. 

#6 Australia (-3)

Number of World Cup appearances: 13th appearance
Best result: 4th in 2019
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 3rd

Why so low? Before they went on to beat France and South Sudan, Australia also lost to Brazil, and then had a shaky last quarter against Georgia where they almost let an 18-point halftime lead turn into a defeat.

There are some signs of weakness here and there, but Australia are still expected to make the Quarter-Finals, probably charge towards the podium, too. Especially when they have a new high IQ defensive anchor in Josh Giddey.

 

#5 Canada (+2)

Number of World Cup appearances: 15th appearance
Best result: 6th in 1978 and 1982
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 15th

It's clear that other than the United States, Canada have the most exciting roster in terms of NBA experience and status. But at the same time, losing Jamal Murray to injury could be that one difference that makes them a Top 5 team instead of a Top 3 lock.

Also, their part of the draw could see them face teams like France, Latvia, Spain, Brazil and Australia or Slovenia even before they reach the Semi-Finals. Oh well, to be the best, you have to beat the best.

#4 Spain (+2)

Number of World Cup appearances: 13th appearance
Best result: winners in 2006 and 2019
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 1st

Okay, having Spain as low as sixth place in the last Power Rankings was a bad one. Turns out their pool is so deep that even when Ricky Rubio swims out of it, there's plenty of first class, high quality fish still chilling in the depths.

They are so used to winning, they remain the favorite to reach the Semi-Finals from their part of the draw, no matter who plays for them. They are so used to performing at a high level, they gave USA a run for their money, blew out Slovenia by 20, and held off the Dominican Republic. Spain's other defeat of the summer was to Canada - that's a game that could've pushed them to #2 at this checkpoint.  

#3 France (-1)

Number of World Cup appearances: 9th appearance
Best result: 3rd in 2014 and 2019
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 5th

A near perfect summer preparation camp ended with a defeat to Australia, that's half of the reason to push them back one spot since the last Power Rankings. The other half is just the fact that this other team now #2 is playing with so much enthusiasm and panache, they deserve a reward.

Back to France, not much to add, really. This is a team that set the standards so high, the entire world would consider it a failure if they missed the Semi-Finals in the Philippines. That's how good they've been over the last 10 years, with one FIBA EuroBasket title, one FIBA EuroBasket silver, one Olympic silver, one FIBA EuroBasket bronze and back-to-back FIBA Basketball World Cup podium place finishes.

Everybody expects them to climb the podium. They just want it to be the highest step this time around.

#2 Germany (+3)

Number of World Cup appearances: 7th appearance
Best result: 3rd in 2002
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 11th

Yes. That's right. That's Germany at #2! A team with just a single World Cup medal, a third place finish in 2002, but a team with so much potential and coming off of a wonderful FIBA EuroBasket 2022 campaign which saw them finish third.

This summer, they pushed Canada into overtime, they were up by 16 (!) in the second half against the United States, they can run with the fastest teams, jump with the tallest and stand their ground against the physically strongest ones.

It's a complete package. Dennis Schroder running the point, Wagner brothers bringing the energy and the motion in the ocean, Daniel Theis and Johannes Voigtmann providing the experience, and you still have guys like Isaac Bonga, Maodo Lo, Andreas Obst, Johannes Thiemann and others playing their roles perfectly. Crazy to think they weren't even among the top 16 in 2019...

#1 USA  (=)

Number of World Cup appearances: 19th appearance
Best result: winners in 1954, 1986, 1994, 2010, and 2014
FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE: 2nd

So, how come Germany lost that game when they were up by 16 in the second half? Anthony Edwards happened, that's how. He put up 34 points on the night, had 10 of them during an 18-0 run, and just looked like a movie villain that will get his origin story spin-off and become a crowd favorite.

One thing to keep in mind. Derrick Rose played the World Cup in 2010, went into the NBA season in sixth gear already - won the MVP of the season award. Steph Curry played the World Cup in 2014, won his first NBA MVP award in 2015. Not saying it's going to happen with Anthony Edwards, too.

But if it happens, just remember we were the first ones to call it.

*The power rankings are entirely subjective and are in no way a true and accurate ranking system. All comments are purely those of the author.

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