Permutations: With one game to go, here's how teams can qualify for the Olympic Quarter-Finals

TOKYO (Japan) - The men's teams are enjoying their day off on Friday in Japan. Assistant coaches and staff members are spending it with calculators in their hands, figuring out how to get to the next round.

With the format changes, there is now a new way of forming the Final Phase elite eight. First, two teams from each group advance to the Quarter-Finals, with two of the three third-placed teams also joining them. In other words, only the lowest-ranked third-place team and the bottom-placed teams will not go through.

Being the best second-placed team in all groups is also important, as it sends you to the seeded part of the draw on Sunday. So how will the second- and third-placed teams from different groups be ranked?

Per the Basketball Rules - Chapter D.4 - Classification of Teams, the following criteria shall be applied:
1. Better record;
2. If the record is the same, better points difference;
3. If the points difference is the same, higher number of points scored;
4. If these criteria still cannot decide, the FIBA World Ranking presented by NIKE shall decide on the final classification.

Group A

		GAMES				STREAK	GAME POINTS					POINTS
#	Team	P	W	L	%	Last 5	For	Agt	+/-	FA	AA
1	France	2	2	0	100		180	153	27	90	76.5	4
2	USA	2	1	1	50.0		196	149	47	98	74.5	3
3	Czech Republic	2	1	1	50.0		161	175	-14	80.5	87.5	3
4	Iran	2	0	2	0		144	204	-60	72	102	2

Final Group Games:

Iran v France USA v Czech Republic [/unordered]

How to qualify:

France are already through, will finish atop of the group standings no matter what happens in their last game.

USA will finish second with a win over the Czech Republic, or third if they lose to the Czech Republic.

Czech Republic will finish second with a win over the USA, or third if they lose to the USA.

Iran are out of the running, will finish at the bottom of the group no matter what happens.

Group B

		GAMES				STREAK	GAME POINTS					POINTS
#	Team	P	W	L	%	Last 5	For	Agt	+/-	FA	AA
1	Australia	2	2	0	100		170	150	20	85	75	4
2	Italy	2	1	1	50.0		175	168	7	87.5	84	3
3	Germany	2	1	1	50.0		181	184	-3	90.5	92	3
4	Nigeria	2	0	2	0		159	183	-24	79.5	91.5	2

Final Group Games:

Italy v Nigeria Australia v Germany [/unordered]

How to qualify:

Australia are already through, will finish:

first if they defeat Germany second if they lose to Germany, and Nigeria defeat Italy second if they lose to Germany by six points or less, and Italy defeat Nigeria third if they lose to Germany by seven points or more, and Italy defeat Nigeria [/unordered]

Italy will finish:

first if they defeat Nigeria, and Germany defeat Australia by 17 points or less second if they defeat Nigeria, and Germany defeat Australia by 18 points or more second if they defeat Nigeria, and Australia defeat Germany second if they lose to Nigeria by eight points or less, and Australia defeat Germany third if they lose to Nigeria by 9 to 13 points, and Australia defeat Germany fourth if they lose to Nigeria by 14 points or more, and Australia defeat Germany fourth if they lose to Nigeria, and Germany defeat Australia [/unordered]

Germany will finish:

first if they defeat Australia, and Nigeria defeat Italy first if they defeat Australia by 18 points or more, and Italy defeat Nigeria second if they defeat Australia by 7 to 17 points, and Italy defeat Nigeria third if they defeat Australia by six points or less, and Italy defeat Nigeria third if they lose to Australia, and Italy defeat Nigeria third if they lose to Australia, and Nigeria defeat Italy by four points or less third if they lose to Australia, and Nigeria defeat Italy by 14 points or more fourth if they lose to Australia, and Nigeria defeat Italy by 5 to 13 points [/unordered]

Nigeria cannot win the group, will finish:

second if they defeat Italy by nine points or more, and Australia defeat Germany third if they defeat Italy by 5 to 8 points, and Australia defeat Germany third if they defeat Italy, and Germany defeat Australia fourth if they lose to Italy fourth if they beat Italy by less than five points, and Australia defeat Germany [/unordered]

Group C   

		GAMES				STREAK	GAME POINTS					POINTS
#	Team	P	W	L	%	Last 5	For	Agt	+/-	FA	AA
1	Slovenia	2	2	0	100		234	181	53	117	90.5	4
2	Spain	2	2	0	100		169	148	21	84.5	74	4
3	Argentina	2	0	2	0		171	199	-28	85.5	99.5	2
4	Japan	2	0	2	0		158	204	-46	79	102	2

Final Group Games:

Argentina v Japan Spain v Slovenia [/unordered]

How to qualify:

Slovenia are through to the Quarter-Finals, will finish:

first if they defeat Spain second if they lose to Spain [/unordered]

Spain are through to the Quarter-Finals, will finish:

first if they defeat Slovenia second if they lose to Slovenia [/unordered]

Argentina can't win the group, will finish:

third if they defeat Japan fourth if they lose to Japan [/unordered]

Japan can't win the group, will finish:

third if they defeat Argentina fourth if they lose to Argentina [/unordered]

 

DISCLAIMER: The above analysis has been prepared solely for the purpose of improving the experience of fans. It is not to be understood as advice or as binding information on the Tokyo 2020 Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament for competition purposes.

FIBA