Final Four preview: Who will make history in Mersin?

MERSIN (Türkiye) - The long-awaited EuroLeague Women Final Four is almost here, with just two wins separating the champions to be from the ultimate prize.

Cukurova Basketbol Mersin, Fenerbahce Alagoz Holding, Villeneuve d'Ascq and ZVVZ USK Praha will all have their sights set on the EuroLeague Women trophy, but it all starts with the Semi-Finals on Friday.

 

Here's everything you need to know about the two Semi-Final contests as the last four clubs standing bid for a place in Sunday's showpiece Final. 

15:00 CET: Villeneuve d'Ascq LM vs ZVVZ USK Praha

What a campaign of two halves it has been for Villeneuve d'Ascq LM. The French club were up and down and looking unlikely to even make the Quarter-Finals. Yet midway through the Regular Season, things clicked into place and they not only made the post-season for the first time in their history, they went one better by making a maiden Final Four.

Facing them are ZVVZ USK Praha who have been regulars at the flagship tournament finale down the years, most memorably winning the silverware on their home floor back in 2015. Last year they hosted Final Four in the Czech capital but it proved to be a tournament to forget as injuries and some misfortune resulted in them finishing fourth. 

Both teams met in the Regular Season and won their respective home games, with Praha winning 74-63 back in late October, while Villeneuve took victory 90-81 in mid-January. 

Key Matchup: Ezi Magbegor has been sensational since the first jump ball for ZVVZ USK Praha. The leading shot-blocker in the competition, averaging more than 13 points and 8 boards per game and in the top four in terms of efficiency, she's on fire and will need slowing down.

That task will likely in the hands of Kariata Diaby, who's arguably got the biggest job of any Villeneuve player in this game. She has her own upsides too of course, but the primary focus will surely be to stop Magbegor putting down the anchor at both ends of the floor, dominating and giving Praha the foundation they usually use for victory. 

X-Factor: What a fantastic year it has been for Kennedy Burke who gained recognition for her work with a monthly MVP honor in December and she has consistently been the driving force for Villeneuve. If she hits top gear and that usually means defensively disrupting her opponents' offense with tremendous effect, then the Final Four first-timers might step into the title game. 

Stats Don't Lie:  Closely matched in just about every single category, one of the rare differences is Praha's 24 points off the bench compared to just 16 for Villeneuve. 

What do the experts say?  

FIBA women's basketball specialist Paul Nilsen: It's maximum kudos to Rachid Meziane and his players that despite this being a fairytale and historical run, they have a bonafide shot at now making it to the title game. Their great team ethic, strong physicality and general verve, led by Kennedy Burke, will provide some major headaches. Praha are going to miss the experience of the injured Teja Oblak, but you have to think that the forward lineup of Valeriane Ayayi, Nyara Sabally and Ezi Magbegor will get the job done. Prediction: ZVVZ  USK Praha

FIBA commentator and Basket Landes assistant coach Shona Thorburn: I never want to bet against Praha. All season long they have been playing with a player or two out and  somehow find a way to win. They have one of the best coaches in the competition and are constantly competing for the trophy. That being said, this could be the first time in a very long time a French team could be standing on top of the podium. Villeneuve have the talent at every position to compete. As long as they don't only fall back on their three-point shooting, they're a team to be reckoned with. Prediction: Villeneuve d'Ascq LM

FIBA commentator Mark Mills: Praha will want to put last season's Final Four nightmare to bed with their much deeper roster this time. They have a good combination of youth and experience, who have all stepped up at different points across the season. Villeneuve d'Ascq has had a real roller-coaster of a season. On their day, they can beat anyone, but some days things just don't click for them, so predicting the outcome of this one is tough.

Both teams took home wins in the Regular Season against each other. However, I think that the absence of Oblak for Praha is the factor that tips this one in favor of Villeneuve d'Ascq, but it is likely to be super close for the full 40 minutes; it may even be bound for overtime! Prediction: Villeneuve d'Ascq LM

18:00 CET: Fenerbahce Alagoz Holding vs Cukurova Basketbol Mersin 

The two Turkish juggernauts meet in a repeat of last year's Final, although plenty has changed from 12 months ago, including two new playcallers at the helm of each team. Huge rivals in their own league as well as this competition, Fenerbahce Alagoz Holding are gunning for more silverware as they continue to defend their crown, while Cukurova Basketbol Mersin stay in the hunt for their maiden title. 

Packed full of star names, Fenerbahce have relied heavily this season on the quartet of Emma Meesseman, Kayla McBride, Napheesa Collier and Yvonne Anderson, They will be seen as slight favorites, but in Marina Mabrey, Cukurova have a standout star who has had an incredible campaign. With the recently arrived Kahleah Copper, a former EuroLeague Women MVP as well, they have game-winners to get them into Sunday's Final. 

Key Matchup: It's surely been a gamble for Cukurova Basketbol Mersin to replace the powerful Elizabeth Williams on their roster. The forward was having a really strong season and would probably have had the assignment of trying to contain the highly dangerous Meesseman who is so often the centerpiece for Fenerbahce.

Instead, that might now mean a combination of different players sharing that massive role. From Maria Araujo to Virag Kiss or even Steph Mavunga. Although they also have to contain the super-sized winger Napheesa Collier too. If Meesseman is allowed to get anywhere near her best in this game, then Fenerbahce will be confident of coming out on top.

X-Factor: Looking after the ball efficiently could be the determining factor in this one. Cukurova spill the ball more than 16 times per game and taking into account how ruthless Fenerbahce are in punishing turnovers with 21.9 points per outing from that source, the host clubs need to be controlled and measured in what they do. While taking care in possession is always important, it feels like Cukurova doing so in this particular game will really increase their chances of success hugely. 

Meanwhile, there will probably be a big focus on headlines names like Copper, Mabrey and McBride, but perhaps Olivia Epoupa and Yvonne Anderson could be a really fascinating backcourt duel, with both being quick and needing to produce smart games for their respective teams. 

Stats Don't Lie: Fenerbahce score more than twice the fast break points of Cukurova with 17.9 compared to 8.6, while they have been devastating in the paint with 41.5 points against 26.1 for their opponents. 

What do the experts say?  

FIBA women's basketball specialist Paul Nilsen: This one feels unpredictable. Domestic rivalry means a real derby game feel, even if Fenerbahce are 2-0 up in the Turkish Finals and won again last weekend against Cukurova. Home support will be intense and Cukurova have a couple of special clutch players in Marina Mabrey and Kahleah Copper. On the flip side, the pressure of having to perform in front of a huge crowd will weigh heavy. It's a coin toss in reality, but seriously, is it humanly possible to back against a team with a high performing Emma Meesseman and Napheesa Collier in it? Prediction: Fenerbahce Alagoz Holding

FIBA commentator and Basket Landes assistant coach Shona Thorburn: Mersin playing at home in what I imagine will be a sold out crowd is going to give them a big advantage, but will it be enough? How do you stop one of the best players in the world in Emma Meesseman and if you do contain her, what about Kayla McBride? They have so many MVP contenders. The game will likely come down to the last few possessions and we might see something similar to what happened when these two teams played each other in the Turkish Cup Finals. Prediction: Fenerbahce Alagoz Holding

FIBA commentator Mark Mills: Fenerbahce  are favorites to claim back-to-back Euroleague Women titles and it's hard to go against them. They have such depth of talent and have looked phenomenal all season long. However, Cukurova made some late moves by bringing in some proven quality, particularly offensively. That recruitment has given them a real chance of an upset and their the biggest move was securing Final Four  hosting rights. If the Cukurova crowd comes out in force, then this could go down as a great Euroleague Women game. Prediction:  Fenerbahce Alagoz Holding

FIBA