The experts' opinions round 2: Who will give Spain their biggest challenge?

ISTANBUL (FIBA EuroBasket 2017) - Now we all have moved to the European side of Istanbul, we review our post-tournament predictions and update our predictions.

Once more, our Final Round livebasketball.tv commentator Jeff Taylor, and our four writers, Tristan Lavalette, Simas Baranauskas, Igor Curkovic and David Hein offers us their takes of the action so far, and what is to come.

Look, we all agree, Spain are good, but...

JT: Spain have been tested just once, against Croatia, and scraped a win. Croatia could still be Spain's biggest hurdle with the nucleus of players from last year's run still together and a terrific strategist in coach Petrovic. Remembering how Croatia lost in the first meeting last year to Italy at the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Turin but then won the second meeting, Croatia are going to be tough to beat twice. Croatia also have a history of beating Spain, in Seville at FIBA EuroBasket 2007 and at the Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Can Croatia get past a very good Russia, though, one that is much improved under Sergey Bazarevich? Alexsei Shved is having a phenomenal tournament. This big, strong and very good defensive-minded team can cause problems for Spain. Then there is Kristaps Porzingis-led Latvia, who showed in a hard-fought win over hosts Turkey they can go deep to their bench and still get big plays. Latvia are definitely in the hunt for a medal and could cause problems for Spain. Serbia need to improve their shooting from the perimeter to be a real threat. You can only applaud Slovenia, who similar to Croatia (Bojan Bogdanovic and Dario Saric) have a vicious one-two punch in Goran Dragic and Luka Doncic. I think Doncic's inexperience at this level will not be a concern, but rather the front line that could struggle against the Gasol brothers.

TL: Spain have basically cruised along, with the exception of the the game against Croatia and it's tough to nitpick but I don't think they are unbeatable. Yes, they have experience, talent and, of course, size through the Gasol brothers but in knockout games - when the pressure is magnified - anything is possible. The Gasols, particularly Pau, are aging and have lots of mileage so that could have an impact at some point. Spain are the overwhelming favorites but that tag does come with suffocating expectations and it will be interesting to see how the youngsters deal with that when the going gets tough - as is likely to happen at some stage. 

SB: Why is there a 'but' in that sentence? I am not implying Spain are unbeatable, after all it only one takes one sub-par performance in the Knock-Outs to lose. However, I still see them as the best team in the tournament. They haven't played a serious game at FIBA EuroBasket 2017, with the tougher contest against Croatia holding no decisive implications. Traditionally, Sergio Scariolo's teams have only got better as tournaments progress into the Final Phase of the competition. The injury of Alejandro Abrines will have complicated things a little bit, taking away an able body on the perimeter who can play some defense. Some teams could look to take advantage of Sergio Rodriguez and Juan Carlos Navarro's defensive shortcomings, but it is the unstoppable frontcourt that makes Spain the break-away front-runner heading into the elimination stages at Sinan Erdem Arena. Serbia have a lot of size, Lithuania have some too, but it's just hard to find flaws on this Spanish team.

IC: But Alex Abrines is gone. Sure, even without him they were impressive in Group C, but missing an NBA player in a knockout stage game could prove costly, especially with no Sergio Llull around, either. They do have a tough draw ahead of them, facing 15,000 Turkish fans in Istanbul, potentially followed by France or Germany. Good news for Spain - they cannot face Serbia before the final, so there's no chance of history repeating itself. It was here, in the Sinan Erdem arena where I am sitting right now, that Milos Teodosic made The Shot in the 2010 FIBA Basketball World Cup Quarter-Finals. Man, would love to see Spain have a test like that again... Doesn't even have to be Serbia. I'm looking at you two, Slovenia and Croatia. (Got to keep it in the neighborhood.)   

DH: Spain have not yet been tested - and no, I really don't consider the Croatia game a test. Of course they have some veteran leaders - and some of the greats in FIBA EuroBasket history. But their youngsters have not experienced a crucial knockout game in international basketball and the pressure involved. Coaches always say games must be played the full 40 minutes. And who's to say a game must be lost in the final two minutes? What about three turnovers early in the second half by an inexperienced player which totally changes the momentum of the game? To beat Spain, a team will need to play to near perfection for 40 minutes. And maybe going after that Spanish youth could be a recipe for success. Which teams could do that and stay disciplined the whole time? Would be interesting to see Lithuania, Serbia or Russia give it a try.

I admit, I got this one slightly wrong...

JT: I did not anticipate Russia winning four of five games in Group D. This is a team that seems to be together with Shved playing at a superstar level. I also did not expect to fall in love with Turkey's roster of players and their coach, Ufuk Sarica. They play hard. Cedi Osman, Kenan Sipahi, Melih Mahmutoglu and even Semih Erden have been terrific. 

TL: Sure they had loud fans cheering them on, but Finland winning four of five to finish second in tough Group A was still a surprise. Of course, there were big wraps on Lauri Markkanen after he was a lottery pick in the recent NBA Draft but he completely exceeded expectations, particularly his astounding shooting in the clutch. Markkanen was one of the very best players in the Group Phase and has proven a resounding point to critics, particularly those in the US who severely criticized the Chicago Bulls for selecting him. 

SB: After seeing Georgia play in the friendly games a handful of times before the start of FIBA EuroBasket 2017, I was convinced they were set for a nice run in the Final Phase. That feeling only grew after the opening-day win over Lithuania, but sure enough they fell apart with a thumping after that. It is hard to pin the fault on anything in particular, but I think that, on talent alone, Ilias Zouros should have guided this team past the Group Phase. On the other hand, what a great story – Ukraine proving everyone wrong! 
IC: Georgia. The fact that they defeated Lithuania on Day 1 made it even worse for me, because I was gloating around, saying stuff like, "called it!" or "hate to say I told you so." I had Georgia as group winners in the Power Rankings, but seems that their preparation games tricked me. No excuses, I have to swallow my pride and admit that I got this COMPLETELY, not slightly wrong... 

DH: Most people - including yours truly - had Ukraine pegged as maybe finishing last in Group B in Tel Aviv. But the team did improve over the course of the tournament and maybe most importantly in big events won the RIGHT games. Sure, Georgia knocked off group winners Lithuania, but Ukraine were able to take advantage of Georgia's lack of depth for their first win. Ukraine then stayed alive when Italy knocked off Georgia on the final game day of the group and rolled past an already-eliminated Israel in the last game in Group B to snatch the final spot on the charter flight from Tel Aviv to Istanbul for the Final Phase.

Pau Gasol won't be MVP because:

JT: If Dragic, Shved, Porzingis, Dennis Schroder or Lauri Markkanen make it to the Final and win, I could see one of these players beating Gasol to the honor.

TL: If Spain don't go all the way, my money is on Slovenia who were undefeated in the Group Phase mainly due to the brilliance of captain Goran Dragic. The Miami Heat star has somewhat been overshadowed by wunderkind Luka Doncic and that seems to have suited the low-key Dragic perfectly. In his international farewell, Dragic is on a mission and has perfectly juggled playing with passion and poise. If Slovenia do triumph, Dragic will almost certainly win the MVP. 

SB: Admittedly, I picked Marc Gasol to win MVP before the tournament, but that's probably not happening. The simple answer is – Pau Gasol will not end up with the MVP if Spain don't actually win the title. If we look at the list of teams who could challenge them, potential candidates for the award are Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kristaps Porzingis, Goran Dragic, Bojan Bogdanovic. Jonas Valanciunas? I see Lithuania in the same group as Serbia, Latvia, Slovenia and Croatia, but with them, it's more about the team and not individuals. 

IC: Because he said it himself when he became FIBA EuroBasket all-time leading scorer. "This is nice, but it's not what we came for," were Pau's thoughts, and you get the feeling he doesn't mind if Ricky Rubio, Sergio Rodriguez, Marc Gasol or Hernangomez brothers take over - whatever gets the team to the top one more time. Both Rubio and Rodriguez were on fire in Cluj-Napoca, but with all these other guys like the two Bogdanovics, Porzingis, Markkanen, Shved, Schroder, Dragic having amazing numbers, seems that Ricky and Sergio have flown under the radar so far.  

DH: Because Spain don't win FIBA EuroBasket 2017 or he gets hurt and cannot play the Final. Really, those are the only ways I can see him not being named MVP. Gasol leads Spain in scoring and rebounding and is fourth in the competition in efficiency. And if Spain win you know he will have played a big game.

We've had some close games and more are to come. If any of the Round of 16 games are close, I want the ball to be in the hands of...

JT: There's no question that Dragic is the man. He'll get to the rim or hit a big shot, I'm convinced.

TL: It's a tossup between Dragic and Markkanen but I will have to go with the Finnish youngster after his repeated heroics in the Group Phase. The 20-year-old relishes the moment and thrived with the responsibility in his hands. He is such a deadly shooter but can also attack the rim making him already almost impossible to stop. 

SB: Aleksei Shved is probably not the best player in the tournament. He plays like he is one, though. Possessing all the confidence in the world, his shot selection can be called into question sometimes, but his slick ball-handling, the ability to both drive to the paint and pull up for a jumper is a lethal combination. The happy-go-lucky fella from Russia seems to feel no pressure whatsoever and has been enjoying himself in a big role on Sergey Bazarevich's team.

IC: Aleksei Shved. Easily. Getting 40 percent of his three-pointers to drop, while taking 9 shots from beyond the arc per game is...well, a lot of points. He's gone over 20 in each of his five games so far, I can't wait to see if Aco Petrovic has thought of some trickery to keep the Russian guard quiet. That will be the last game of Round of 16, and it could just be the best and closest one in Istanbul. Which are perfect conditions for my answer right here...  

DH: Plenty of choices actually, which makes this all that much more exciting. I don't think you could go wrong with Aleksei Shved running the final seconds for Russia or Bogdan Bogdanovic for Serbia. And Slovenia fans would be thrilled to have Goran Dragic with the ball at the end of the game. But let's think a little bit out of the box on this and say … Lauri Markkanen. The 20-year-old Finland talent has already shown his propensity for taking and making big shots in Helsinki in the Group Phase. Let's see how much ice is in the youngster's veins.

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