Can Hungary and Croatia stop Italy and Poland in Group J?

MUNICH (Germany) - There is room for two more teams in Group J to reach the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 with Lithuania having already qualified. Italy, Poland, Hungary and Croatia are the ones in the mix for the available berths.

It is not necessarily fair to slot all four teams together, as Italy and Poland are firmly in control of the situation in the standings with superior 7-3 and 6-4 records, respectively, followed by Hungary (5-5) and Croatia (4-6) in that order.

Whatever the February window brings, there is plenty to look forward to with Poland on the brink of a historic return to the World Cup and European powerhouse Croatia hoping to come back into the fold with a last-gasp bid.

GROUP J

Gameday 11 (Friday, February 22)

Croatia v Poland (First game: Poland +5, 79-74) Netherlands v Lithuania Italy v Hungary (First game: Italy +6, 69-63) [/unordered]

Gameday 12 (Monday, February 25)

Hungary v Croatia (First game: Croatia +5, 74-69) Lithuania v Italy Poland v Netherlands [/unordered]

Qualified: Lithuania

 

Can still qualify:

Italy would secure a spot in the World Cup with a win in either of their two remaining fixtures, but even two defeats could suffice as long as they either win the tie-breaker against Hungary or Hungary lose to Croatia. They could also qualify with a three way tie with Hungary and Poland at 19 points each.

Poland would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins but could qualify even with one or no wins in the final window, depending on other results. If they lose once, there is a small chance of an unfavorable three-way tie with Italy and Hungary (if Italy lose twice and Hungary win twice, beating Italy by exactly 9 points in a high-scoring with at least 117 points). If they lose twice, they could be overtaken by Hungary or Croatia if either of them win twice, also depending on the tie-breaker in the scenario with Croatia.

Hungary have to win twice to have a chance of securing a spot in the World Cup, but would still be dependent on other results. If Italy and Poland both win at least once each, Hungary would also be eliminated. Alternatively if Italy's win is against Lithuania instead of Croatia, Hungary qualifies in this scenario.

Croatia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins but only if Poland lose to Netherlands and either Croatia win the tie-breaker against Poland or Hungary beat Italy.

Can no longer qualify: Netherlands

 

What do the experts think?

Simas Baranauskas and Igor Curkovic have closely followed the qualification process ever since the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 European Pre-Qualifiers, keeping you close to the action with the Live Blog. David Hein handed you features from all over Europe and Jeff Taylor is the voice behind international basketball, calling the games for LiveBasketball.tv.

Simas Baranauskas: Italy and Poland are my picks to go through. It would take an implosion of enormous proportions for the Azzurri not to bag one of the two available tickets in Group J. I would go so far as to say they should be able to get that worry off of their chest on Friday. While qualification is less of a certainty for Poland, their fixtures against Croatia and Netherlands both look winnable. I have a feeling Croatia might postpone Poland's qualification party, with Poland locking in their berth in Gdansk against the Dutch.

Igor Curkovic: Italy and Croatia. For Italy, no explanations needed, I've been a big fan of Italian basketball since I first learned how to switch the TV to Italian channels and watched something called "pallacanestro" . And choosing my homeland Croatia as the other team to advance from this group has about 2 percent logic and 98 percent heart so please leave me alone. I know it will be next to impossible. But hey, Luka Samanic and Roko Prkacin will take over the world in a couple of years anyway...

David Hein: Lithuania will be joined from Group J by Italy and Poland. Italy should be able to take care of business in the first game at home against Hungary. In fact, they will desperately want to get it out of the way knowing that a game at Lithuania remains as the final fixture - and why mess around when you can get it done straight away. Poland know they are on the brink of ending a 52-year drought since their last FIBA Basketball World Cup appearance in 1967. Sure, they face a tough task against a Croatia side that is still alive but coach Mike Taylor has a strong unit of eight players who have played at least eight games of the Qualifiers. And then Poland’s final game in the group is at home against Netherlands and the ERGO Arena in Gdansk will be going wild and should urge their team onto a victory and a spot at China 2019.

Jeff Taylor: Italy and Poland. What I like about these programs is the team spirit that has been developed during the Qualifiers. In truth, that esprit de corps was already there for Poland who, with Mike Taylor at the helm, have strengthened the bond as a unit since he first started coaching the team in the FIBA EuroBasket 2015 qualifying games. There are scenarios where Poland, who have a game at Croatia and then host the Netherlands at home, could win one and still not qualify, but I think this team will go through. Warning! Be fully focused against the Dutch! Italy, even without Gigi Datome, Nicolo Melli and Amedeo Della Valle, should win in Varese against Hungary, especially if they put the defensive clamps on David Vojvoda, who had 25 points in the Azzurri's 69-63 victory on September 17 in Debrecen. Italy could do with Pietro Aradori stepping up and be a leader with his scoring, and I think he will. The Segafredo Virtus Bologna man is shooting better than 41 percent from three-point range in both the Basketball Champions League and in Italy's Lega A, which is  much better than his 28.6 percent (10 of 35) for the national team in the European Qualifiers.

FIBA