How will USA adjust? Our Experts answer that and more

MANILA (Philippines) - They may as well start calling the games at the FIBA Basketball World Cup "Thrillas in Manilas" because that's what they're going to be.

That's what some showdowns have been already.

The Quarter-Finals are now upon us, so once again, let's put everything on the table and ask our FIBA Experts to tell us more.

Jeff Taylor, FIBA writer, columnist and play-by-play commentator who's called World Cup games since 1998, is joined by three well-known basketball coaches, and personalities, in a roundtable chat about the event.

Mike Taylor led Poland from obscurity to the Quarter-Finals of the last World Cup and was just named the Canadian Elite Basketball League Coach of the Year for his work with the Winnipeg Sea Bears. He's been doing color commentary with Jeff since the opening tip in Manila's Mall of Asia.

Shona Thorburn, a two-time Canada Olympic point guard who is now a coach at French top-flight side Basket Landes, and FIBA commentator and veteran coach Mark Clark have been on the mic calling the games in Jakarta.

Italy v USA, Tuesday, 20:40 local time

Jeff: Italy have to be scratching their heads and wondering how they ended up with the USA in the last eight. Lousy luck! They would have expected the Americans to beat Lithuania. Expect a USA backlash against Italy after their 110-104 defeat to Lithuania. The USA trailed by as many as 21 points and despite a stirring comeback, fell in the end.

Shona: Sometimes you control everything you are supposed to, and then other teams ruin your day and that's exactly what happened for Italy when the USA lost to Lithuania. Italy has to be heading into this game with confidence after big wins over Serbia and Puerto Rico. You have to beat the best to be the best, it doesn't matter at what point in the tournament. My worry is the USA will wake-up after losing to Lithuania and will be too much to handle for Italy.

Mike: There are no alarm bells for the USA, who are a work in progress. I like the direction the team is going. The team is adjusting to the FIBA style of play and have some great teaching points from recent games. The loss came at a good time for them.

Performances against Montenegro and Lithuania alert the team to several areas where they can improve. First, the USA have started slow in every World Cup game. Playing 82 games and playoffs in the NBA season, teams often ease into a game. Here at the World Cup, teams must bring elite energy and intensity from the jump. Next, there is a physical element to the FIBA game where the USA can improve.

Giving up your body defensively and making multiple efforts on defense can be significant for the United States. In the last two games the USA has allowed 40 offensive rebounds (22 v Montenegro and 18 v Lithuania). Fundamental habits like physically blocking out and not just going to rebound can help Team USA finish more defensive possessions and as a result create more transition and offense from defense scenarios.

Jeff: A disadvantage for the USA is they lack the continuity that many of their opponents have. Montenegro and Lithuania had the majority of their players that competed at EuroBasket 2022.

Mike: Most National Teams feature a core of players who grow together through experiences over several years. This gives them the advantage of really knowing each other and knowing how to play together. They often have a depth of system that allows them to respond to game situations and game pressure together. We see this with teams like Lithuania and Latvia or Spain in recent years. While the USA has worked to adapt to the FIBA style, the players have relatively little time to learn how to play together and play in a system that they can use together when facing adversity. All good things take time.

Jeff: Certain aspects to this USA team really surprise me, and especially the rebounding. Montenegro out-rebounded them 49-31 and Lithuania grabbed 43 rebounds to the USA's 27. Both Montenegro and Lithuania have good size. They also have good systems. Lithuania also shot the lights out in the first half, making their first nine three-pointers. This also puts Italy up against Paolo Banchero, who could have played for them.

Mike: I really like the USA roster and like the pieces they have. I expect them to respond with more physicality and toughness on defense and more teamwork for good shots on offense. For me, the switching 1-5 lineup with Banchero can be a difference for USA against Lithuania. I see a resounding response from USA to beat Italy and set up another challenge with Germany in the Semi-Finals.

 

 

Lithuania v Serbia, Tuesday, 16:40 local time

Jeff: I'm still buzzing after Lithuania's win over the USA - the most impressive performance I've seen from them - EVER.  Lithuania's fans are, as usual, right behind them, and the coaching and tactics and in-game adjustments have been spot-on. Igor Curkovic had a nice analysis of Lithuania's win, how they dealt with Jaren Jackson Jr. Yet for Serbia, this has to be a better match-up for them. I just remember the USA beating Serbia in the 2014 Final, the 2016 Olympic Final. It wasn't pretty.

Mark: Like you said, this has to be the most consistent, impressive Lithuania performance at a major tournament for some time. They do appear to be giving this team enough freedom to play. Will that freedom be there in the Quarter-Final? I fear they may try to overthink this game. If they play with same freedom and confidence, I think they will be fine but I'm not sure they will. The expectations in Lithuania are huge. I'd never bet against a (Svetislav) Pesic coached team, though. He is one of the greats. I was shocked to see Italy beat them but that appears to be a blip. I'll take them to win this one, if they control the boards. Mentally they will be confident against Lithuania and they will take away the open three-point looks.

Shona: This Quarter-Final match-up is the one I keep going back and forth on. Serbia have experienced a lot of disappointment recently at FIBA events, but this younger team is really buying in and listening to coach Pesic. Their win against the Dominican Republic was very impressive and showed how they can rebound after a tough loss to Italy. Both teams are playing with confidence, but I think the mental edge that Lithuania will have after their win over the USA could be the difference.

Germany v Latvia - Wednesday, 16:45 Local Time

Mark: Latvia is certainly seen as the Cinderella team. But the experience the group gained in their 11 -1 qualifier run is the foundation they have built this team performance on. Coach Luca Banchi said that this team doesn't need a coach now that is great as they make great decisions and understand their roles and really know who takes what shots.  But they struggled against Canada while trying to contain SGA (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and my fear is that Schroder will give them real problems. If they can manage that and shoot the ball well they will stretch Germany and I'll back Latvia to get the win.

Mike: I love Latvia and they represent everything good about national team basketball. I'm really happy for Luca Banchi and think he has done a fantastic job orchestrating unbelievable upsets against France and Spain, and earning the important win over Brazil for a Cinderella Top 8 run. Teams win in basketball and Latvia's team structure and team play have been their strength. Like Latvia in 2023, I was a part of Poland's overachieving Top 8 run in World Cup 2019 in China.

From our experience, a lot at this stage depends on match-ups. We fell to eventual champions Spain in the quarterfinals in Shanghai. Germany has been in top form all tournament and have a together, well-balanced team. Schroder is a dynamic scorer and playmaker who could be the difference-maker in a single game. and a return of Franz Wagner could take the German team to a championship level. How the German defense defends the three-point line against Latvia shooting can also be a game key. In the end, it is extremely hard to consistently over-achieve and I see Germany advancing.

Jeff: When I think about Germany, I think about a championship that is waiting to happen. They survived one of the two groups of death, which included beating their toughest opponent, Australia, who are No. 3 in the FIBA World Ranking and were loaded. Before the tournament, I feared there would be a letdown for them in the Second Round in Okinawa but they tore apart Georgia, and Slovenia. Yet how can anyone bet against Latvia, who in Jakarta ended the World Cup dreams of France and also stunned Spain? I think their run comes to an end against Germany but who knows? Maybe they'll have the same magic in the Mall of Asia. This is, after all, Cinderella that we're talking bout.

Canada v Slovenia, Wednesday, 20:30 Local Time

Mike: The World Cup can be grueling and every team will have some moments of adversity. After a strong start, Slovenia stumbled against an excellent German team but as we know a team does not have to win every game, they have to win the right games. For all of these top eight teams, the right game is the Quarter-Final. Luka Doncic has once again been amazing leading Slovenia. What I love about him is how he makes his teammates better and elevates his team.

Jeff: When Slovenia are on, they're on! And they were on until they met Germany. I think it brought them down to earth. It unsettled them. Slovenia didn't just lose. They lost badly, and that was after jumping out to a 25-11 lead at the end of the first quarter. Now they get super-talented Canada? I'm picking Canada.

 

Mike: Unlike the special Olympic run, this Slovenia team is missing several important pieces: Jaka Blazic, Goran Dragic, Vlatko Cancar and Edo Muric. There is so much more pressure on Doncic to dominate and produce. Opponents have been defending Doncic extremely physical in recent games. It's almost as if traditional game plans have not worked so the next step is to throw bodies at the best player and try to beat him up. Even through those challenges Luka has been the highest rated player at the World Cup to this point. That is something special, but Slovenia needs center Mike Tobey, sharpshooter Klemen Prepelic and several other key players to be in top form against Canada.

Shona: What a great comeback win for Canada against the defending champs Spain! They bounced back, and I believe for a younger inexperienced (in terms of FIBA competition) team they really learned from that Brazil loss. With the amount of NBA talent both in terms of players and coaches, I think they should have a good scout for Luka and company. I think Canada's destiny is in their hands moving forward in Manila.

Mark: Canada must learn from how Brazil and Spain got them into half-court, slower tempo games. It's difficult but containing SGA or at least reducing his efficiency and then playing the first pass hard... Canada do not share the ball as well as other teams here. They want to score off initial penetration of the first pass. But no one is going to stop SGA completely.
At the other end, Canada are foul prone. Dillon Brooks, who was for me the reason Canada beat Spain, is a great defensive presence and also a great three-point threat. But he has got into foul trouble in games. Slovenia must be aggressive offensively. Canada will foul and that could limit the time of key players Brooks, RJ Barrett. Others have also been in foul trouble.

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